ES_F 1095 - http://pic.gd/ec4533 - Measured move, S/r , fib, retracement, is expected to be a key level on the ay down.

$ES_F backtesting old channel, at -3 5day sig, v oversold - http://pic.gd/4b6bb6 - pause/bounce expected $$
Further dump would be  a major outlier

$ES_F Trendline from November lows&s/r level at ~1100 , below backtest of previous channel and 200ema hrly likely - http://pic.gd/77c3a4 $$

$ES_F finding resistance at trendline connecting 2 highs from last week - http://pic.gd/90be38 $$

Hey Traders,

few interesting thigns worth noting on the dailys after todays session:

- Trades above previous rally highs on 2 consecutive days and failed to close above
- Today’s candle closed below the low of the high candle (say that 5 times fast), thus triggering a sell on the daily’s.

Here are some levels to be watching on the hourlys:

Resistance is the higlighted area - 50% retracement form today’s high, will update on the level later depending on what final low is made.

Support levels are highlighted:
- trendline + 200ema hrly + 38% retracement of recent move.
- 50% retracement and volume cluster
- 61% retracement and previous s/r band
- backtest of trendline that has been previously respected several times.

Will update when new technical developments take place.

Cheers

$$ $ES_F support levels http://pic.gd/f78539 - first 200ema hrly + trendline

- first 200ema hrly and a trendline

- 50% retracement and volume cluster

$$ $ES_F first support - 3rd hrly test of trendline/pre market low/200ema hrly , below 1048 http://pic.gd/887dd1

Hourly chart is rather self explanatory, will be watching following trendlines and fibs, key levels are highlighted:

Break of the lows and the lowest highlighted area on the hourly also lines up with a fib from july lows on the daily:

Also note a boji daily candle  ( obviously, its a term for backtest Doji :-P ) on the daily chart. Another thing worth noting is that market has worked off some oversold conditions and considering the candle formation and put/call ratio have to favor downside slightly, but as always will have to listen to market for clues.

Thats about all as far as key levels. Most of this stuff I tweeted about live on twitter, aka Backtest / fib resistance levels and some other stuff, so if you aren’t feel free to follow @esecfutures (while i might dissappear for a month or two again, at least you might be able to catch me on a lucky guess day)

Some review (in case you missed some of the tweets)

Second high at the fib resistance zone was made with divergences in both VIX and A/D:

Initial target was 1046 - intraday low, VWAP -2sig and also 5minute -3sig as well as 200ema (also note the second top at +2vwap, previous high, fibs, whlie showing divergence on internals):

After that target was reached, target of the intraday double top and 50% retracement from the bottom of the move lined up in 1042s (see hourly chart, we are currently stuck at it overnight)

Cheers

Good trading to all
Vlad

——————-

Thanks to all who have emailed, commented and tweeted to me, everything is going better, hopefully I will be back full force “soon”

$SPX / $ES_F Backtesting Wedge from March lows in retracement from highs area - http://pic.gd/24f4fb $$

$ES_F / $SPX - http://pic.gd/0407f1 - key trendlines , 50ema, internals suggesting rotation/pause. Bulls cant afford gap down tomo $$

Hey Traders,

Dollar put in some new lows today coming within a dime of the bottom of the channel posted in last night’s update. Here are short term levels to watch to possibly start building bullish case:

Both short dollar and long gold trades seem overcrowded, but not sure if its wise to chase either at this point. Here is first decent opportunity longer term entry i see on gold:

SP500 remains right in the middle of the wedge, which at this point would be right around 1050:

And the expected dip buyers levels on the way down for ES emini:

Firstly 1019 and then major 1014 retracement and s/r band. Below would be looking for those trendline to act as support.

There are plenty of fx moving news overnight as well as the following domestic market moving news tomorrow:

Good trading to all

Vlad

p.s.
dont forget we get to deal with the pleasures of rolling over the futures contracts for indexes and fx futs this week.

Hey Traders,

unfortunately there are not many clues from Mr Market these days, will have to be watching Dollar closely as well as see what happens with all the news this week.

ES/SP500 continues to be in the wedge, with top of the wedge resistance being about the only thing I see in the way of retracing 50% of bear market… (and yes , sentiment and various internals are at extreme multi year levels… but that doesnt seem to matter at this particular moment)

Besides the top of the wedge tehre’s a recent 1027.5 spike high and a fib in the way of retest of the highs:

To start building a bearish case ( a dummie mission of late) , will be watching higlighted support levels.

Will post key technical levels and market internals via @esecfutures on twitter intraday.

Cheers

Vlad