$ES_F finding resistance at trendline connecting 2 highs from last week - http://pic.gd/90be38 $$

Hey Traders,

few interesting thigns worth noting on the dailys after todays session:

- Trades above previous rally highs on 2 consecutive days and failed to close above
- Today’s candle closed below the low of the high candle (say that 5 times fast), thus triggering a sell on the daily’s.

Here are some levels to be watching on the hourlys:

Resistance is the higlighted area - 50% retracement form today’s high, will update on the level later depending on what final low is made.

Support levels are highlighted:
- trendline + 200ema hrly + 38% retracement of recent move.
- 50% retracement and volume cluster
- 61% retracement and previous s/r band
- backtest of trendline that has been previously respected several times.

Will update when new technical developments take place.

Cheers

$$ $ES_F support levels http://pic.gd/f78539 - first 200ema hrly + trendline

- first 200ema hrly and a trendline

- 50% retracement and volume cluster

Hourly chart is rather self explanatory, will be watching following trendlines and fibs, key levels are highlighted:

Break of the lows and the lowest highlighted area on the hourly also lines up with a fib from july lows on the daily:

Also note a boji daily candle  ( obviously, its a term for backtest Doji :-P ) on the daily chart. Another thing worth noting is that market has worked off some oversold conditions and considering the candle formation and put/call ratio have to favor downside slightly, but as always will have to listen to market for clues.

Thats about all as far as key levels. Most of this stuff I tweeted about live on twitter, aka Backtest / fib resistance levels and some other stuff, so if you aren’t feel free to follow @esecfutures (while i might dissappear for a month or two again, at least you might be able to catch me on a lucky guess day)

Some review (in case you missed some of the tweets)

Second high at the fib resistance zone was made with divergences in both VIX and A/D:

Initial target was 1046 - intraday low, VWAP -2sig and also 5minute -3sig as well as 200ema (also note the second top at +2vwap, previous high, fibs, whlie showing divergence on internals):

After that target was reached, target of the intraday double top and 50% retracement from the bottom of the move lined up in 1042s (see hourly chart, we are currently stuck at it overnight)

Cheers

Good trading to all
Vlad

——————-

Thanks to all who have emailed, commented and tweeted to me, everything is going better, hopefully I will be back full force “soon”

$ES_F / $SPX - http://pic.gd/0407f1 - key trendlines , 50ema, internals suggesting rotation/pause. Bulls cant afford gap down tomo $$

Hey Traders,

Dollar put in some new lows today coming within a dime of the bottom of the channel posted in last night’s update. Here are short term levels to watch to possibly start building bullish case:

Both short dollar and long gold trades seem overcrowded, but not sure if its wise to chase either at this point. Here is first decent opportunity longer term entry i see on gold:

SP500 remains right in the middle of the wedge, which at this point would be right around 1050:

And the expected dip buyers levels on the way down for ES emini:

Firstly 1019 and then major 1014 retracement and s/r band. Below would be looking for those trendline to act as support.

There are plenty of fx moving news overnight as well as the following domestic market moving news tomorrow:

Good trading to all

Vlad

p.s.
dont forget we get to deal with the pleasures of rolling over the futures contracts for indexes and fx futs this week.

Hey Traders,

unfortunately there are not many clues from Mr Market these days, will have to be watching Dollar closely as well as see what happens with all the news this week.

ES/SP500 continues to be in the wedge, with top of the wedge resistance being about the only thing I see in the way of retracing 50% of bear market… (and yes , sentiment and various internals are at extreme multi year levels… but that doesnt seem to matter at this particular moment)

Besides the top of the wedge tehre’s a recent 1027.5 spike high and a fib in the way of retest of the highs:

To start building a bearish case ( a dummie mission of late) , will be watching higlighted support levels.

Will post key technical levels and market internals via @esecfutures on twitter intraday.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Lets take a long at whats going on with x-King Dollar, Euro and the oh-so-precious metal.

Firstly, Dollar has been trading in the channel, and yesterday, after another round of rumors about replacement reserve currency, this time from UN , had made a new yearly low. It has also reached some very oversold short term conditions, so not expecting a push much lower than the bottom of the channel on this move.

Break of 50ema (red line) and some recent highs would likely take this to the top of the channel, break of which would also result in break of this falling wedge on the weekly charts, move above that level would like result in a very significant retracement, likely of at least half of the move down from the high into area of  200ema on daily and weekly charts.

On the same chart we can also see that gold has broken key long term trendline, and has completeled a big head and shoulders patter going back to 1Q of 2008.  Target of this paticular formation is in mid 1300s. While backtest of the wedge is quiet likely, I would be very cautious in picking tops in this crazy metal.

Will be watching dollar index for clues on gold and euro, which tagged 61.8% retracement of the move from all time highs today and also tagged a trendline that came in play several times in past year or so. Besides this level there are really no bullish targets on euro besides some of the previous swings highs (blue lines)

While I will continue scalpig all the instruments in every direction to put some Ramen noodles on the table, it is nice to konw where we are in bigger picture. Shall market be approaching near term top, there might be some very nice swing opportunities in FX.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

While gold and currencies remain great scalping instruments, there haven’t really been many developments longer term picture wise.

Firstly, the dollar, the following three trendlines on hourly chart seem to be very much respected over the past several weeks:

break above higlighted resistance level would like take DX to the top of the big channel on daily, break below higlighted support would make new yearly low for a likely trip to the bottom of the same channel:

red line - 50ema daily is expected to act as resistance on its 3rd test, with big test of two recent highs at major s/r level and the top of the channel. On break above 50ema, highs and the channel I will be expecting a trip to 200ema daily and at least 38% retracement of the dollar down move.

Gold, has been trading in own little world lately, consolidating into a tight wedge, with fireworks surely soon to follow, likely later this month:

Euro has also been surprisingly quiet, after breaking out above major trendline:

Chart is pretty self explanatory.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

this market refuses to pullback for more than few hours with bullish sentiment and various market internals continue to set record highs, all that is rather irrelevand since only price pays and we (traders) have to make the most of intraday opportunities since only price pays.

Firstly, lets take a look at weekly charts:

ES weekly has put in a doji near the top of the wedge, suggesting some market indecision last week. This coming up pre-holiday week might be very similar considering it will be last week of summer and pre Labor day weekend week.

Another week of chop would make sense, considering above mentioned factors and similarity of June topping formation so far:

Above the wedge and 1044 swing high (blue arrow) there is a really thin zone going all the way up to 50% retracement of the whole bear market and possibly the top of the channel (weekly chart).

Will be watching these expected support levels for clues:

~1015 - previous breakout area, last week’s low and over the next few also supported by a trendline.
~ 1007s - 50% retracement from monthly low
If bears muster up more than 20 pts of downside I will bother posting more levels, for the past little while it has been a waste of time :)

This will actually be a rather busy week economic data wise:

Will be posting key intarday levels via twitter @esecfutures and here.

Good luck and good trading to all

Vlad