Hey Traders,

While gold and currencies remain great scalping instruments, there haven’t really been many developments longer term picture wise.

Firstly, the dollar, the following three trendlines on hourly chart seem to be very much respected over the past several weeks:

break above higlighted resistance level would like take DX to the top of the big channel on daily, break below higlighted support would make new yearly low for a likely trip to the bottom of the same channel:

red line - 50ema daily is expected to act as resistance on its 3rd test, with big test of two recent highs at major s/r level and the top of the channel. On break above 50ema, highs and the channel I will be expecting a trip to 200ema daily and at least 38% retracement of the dollar down move.

Gold, has been trading in own little world lately, consolidating into a tight wedge, with fireworks surely soon to follow, likely later this month:

Euro has also been surprisingly quiet, after breaking out above major trendline:

Chart is pretty self explanatory.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

if you haven’t had a chance yet, check out previous Dollar Analysis post levels on which will obviously be crucial as to how Euro plays out.

Here are major s/r levels on the daily chart, pretty self explanatory, with red line being 50ema which kept euro in check today:

here is hourly chart with expected resistance levels:

first level being 200ema hourly laminted with a retracement, and then a trendline. Also, not that if lower low is made, the fib levels will naturally be a little bit different.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

some incredible currency moves last Friday. Dollar has clearly has been in steep downtrend helping fuel the recent rally.

After breaking down below two yearly lows for the dollar, it managed to close back above that support, with incredible bearish sentiment on the dollar with only ~3% dollar bulls earlier this week, the short dollar trade certainly seems to be overcrowded.

Will be watching this daily downtrend channel for clues:

For dollar bulls to get something going they will need to make higher highs, with recent high laminated with 50ema, above there the top of the channel is expected to act as resitsance.

Euro has also made a huge move on Friday , closing back below the major trendline that euro has been bumping up against for few weeks:

Highlighted areas are expected s/r levels. On the downside will be watching recent low , laminated with 50ema, with two channels/trendline meeting right below. If those are broken MAJOR s/r level at 1.375 is expected to act as support. Upside is currently the path of least resistance, considering broken retracement and resitance lines. THe recent highs are expected to act as resistance. Other than very overcrowded trade and not many left to buy / get squeezed, tehre is really not much in the way of euro to the long side TA wise.

As always will post twitter updates about key technical euro levels on the blog and via Twitter @esecfutures

Feel free to sign up for the mailing list on the right to receive updates about latest posts

Cheers

Vlad

This picture should tell the story:

Hey Traders,

euro remains in the same narrow range, and tagged multi year trendline yesterday, and produced two daily doji - indecision candles, much like the SP500, suggesting possible pullback.

The chart is pretty self explanatory. On break above this multiyear trendline only resistnace levels are previous highs along with the top of blue channel.  On the way down, orange wedge support laminated with 50 ema daily as well as blue channel.

Will post update shall any key technical developments take place, until then will continue scalping intraday setups.

Cheers

Vlad

So much for $ES_F / $SPX lower highs scenario, 6 day channel remains key http://twitpic.com/b86rl $$

Hey Traders,

Euro is approaching key daily trendline, with previous yearly high at 1.4392. On beak above those 2 levels 1.46-1.48 are likely targets:

Cheers

Good Morning Traders,

SPY Max Pain is 91 today, or about 910 ES, somewhat likely we chop around that level all day somewhat like around 900, yesterdays max pain

—————

After getting a bounce off the trendline / channel on last nights INTC earnings pop, ES has retraced and made a new high since. ES will open at most overbought levels in a long time, more on that after the opening bell.

919.25-920 is Gap fill from 7/1 and 61% line from highs, that should be one of key levels on the upside with 928.5 the top or “right shoulder” being another one.

——-

Euro is approaching top of the wedge, with break above meaning likely trip to retest major weekly trendline just 150 pips above

———-

Gold has also reached very overbought levels, right below key pivot of 945-948 which has acted as s/r multiple time, with 948.5 being 50% retracement from highs.

At any rate , please remember that today is OPEX Wednesday, if you choose to trade be VERY  careful

will keep posted on Twitter @esecfutures and blog as new technical developments take palce

Good luck and Good trading

Vlad

p.s.
After poking fun at “head and shoulderers” when market was breaking down into very oversold conditions, I failed to catch the meat of the move and started trying to reverse back to short way too early, but right now I believe this is getting a bit overextended on the long side.

Unlike past few days, volatility story is a bit different today, especially for some consolidating instruments, here are 10 futures I keep track of and their % of ATR by 8:50am EST.

~Gold
GCQ09    116.8
~FX Futs
SFU09    113.4
CDU09    96.6
ECU09    97.9
ADU09    92.1
BPU09    75.8
JYU09    41.6
~Index Futs
YMU09    70.3
NQU09    56.5
ESU09    45.1

Shaping up to be a fun day already

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

absolutely nothing new to say about Euro, its right in the middle of the wedge with momentum pretty much neutral, just a fraction on the overbought side

Both sides of the wedge are exactly daily ATR away so fading the first touch will probably be the play.

Will keep posted via twitter and or blog updates shall anything significant happen.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

euro has gone exactly nowhere in the last week trading within a small range, closing citually unchanged for the week and only 40 pips away from a close 7 weeks ago. There are no revolutionary technical developments beside some channels and moving average catching up to price action that will likely be budging this in either direction:

Highlighted levels are the one I will be watching for clues as well as the current wedge and fib levels. With key level being right beloe 50ema daily at 1.377s - multiple time s/r level.

As always will keep posting key levels in daily reviews and intraday via Twitter @esecfutures

Cheers

Vlad

Twitter / Vlad: $EURUSD / $EC_F within tic ….