http://twitpic.com/h9086 - Why not 61% retrcmnt,200ma(purple) & trendline?
Cause its NQ weeklys?
ES Futures and Euro Currency Futures Analysis
From useless-guess-for-future-i-told-you-so purposes department. Calling the low from this morning THE low for the king … errr prince dollar ….
Be sure to remind me when/if i’m wrong to update
This is coming to you live from random thoughts / we’ve seen stranger things happen department …
- 666 on 3-6-9 was the low of the current bear market
- July low was put in almost exactly at 12:34:56 on 7-8-9
Tomorrow is 9-9-9 (6 months from the low) … with BO giving a speech on health care sometime at night .. so 9:09:09 Pm is also in play (just in case they want to get real fancy in futures department )
Could we have a high put in somewhere in the area of oh.. lets say 666 + 369 .. 1035?
Back to scheduled programing and key technical level only udpates starting with next post.
Victory for the bears certainly has a pinch of sarcasm to it, but bears which have been completely wiped out and taken to the woodshed will now have to cling onto something via the “less bad” method, as bulls did since March.
Bears managed to hold ES down a whopping 4.00!!! In the face of incredible squeeze in financials, especially AIG, dollar reaching new 2009 lows and of course the still present dip hungry buyers and performance chasing funds. This might be slight sign of exhaustion in the rally.
Absolutely no technical damage done to the markets yet. The first two dip buyer levels posted in yesterdays update ended up being overnight and intraday lows. Inraday low was also marked by 2 day -3 sig level while trading below -3 1 day sigma level for that particular hour, which meant the move was rather extended and there was a decent chance of reversal, considering it happened right in the support zone, it was a very very nice setup, which I tweeted about live and made a blog post.
That also happened as all indexes reached their average daily trading range, here is the EOD summary of index and commodity trading range, as you see today was very narrow for most fx:
TFU09 112.0 -0.89%
NQU09 106.4 -0.98%
YMU09 104.3 -0.47%
ESU09 95.6 -0.40%
CDU09 84.4 0.27%
ADU09 80.0 -0.31%
BPU09 78.9 0.37%
JYU09 74.8 0.23%
GCZ09 70.7 -0.30%
ECU09 67.8 0.07%
SFU09 64.9 -0.08%
DXU09 64.3 -0.30%
Check yesterday’s daily update for support levels , those are still valid. The weekly picture is also the same.
Will be back with full daily update later tonight, hopefully will dig up some more nuggets for clues.
Follow me on Twitter @esecfutures for post alerts as well as key intraday level and technical information , which has been rather spot on lately.
Have a great rest of the day
Nothing changed at all today. Intraday setups continue to work just fine, but in bigger picture bulls are in full control for now and more buyers keep coming in at smallest support levels.
Will have daily update up later tonight with key levels to watch, they will be very similar to yesterdays update.
Today most dollar, most fx pairs and indexes took a break, here is % of average range summary:
As always will post notifications of new posts as well as intraday setups on my twitter account @esecfutures
have a great rest of the day
firstly, the whole BAC things blows my mind, pay out 3.6 Billion in bonuses and pay 33million of fines for it, sound like a pretty good deal, they should super size the offer to 100 million fines to pay 11Bil bonuses….
Today was yet another lesson in Dont Fight Momentum 101, this market continues to move up, so much to it, the “reasons” and “explanations” behind it are pure BS, since it goes up on good and bad earnings, news and fx strength.
Speaking of FX strength, dollar took a big dump today to new yearly lows. Some are looking for possible reversal around these levels, which would actually make sense considering where we are on the weekly / monthly SP500 charts (see last nights updates)
Here is a quick summary of average range % traded today for the instruments i track:
ECU09 162.1 1.15%
BPU09 158.8 1.33%
DXU09 147.4 -0.98%
SFU09 136.4 0.85%
CDU09 116.0 1.10%
ESU09 110.5 1.65%
YMU09 105.7 1.33%
NQU09 93.2 1.59%
TFU09 91.7 1.37%
GCQ09 85.1 0.30%
ADU09 83.6 0.71%
JYU09 79.0 -0.63%
The longer this run continues the more support is being built on the downside and more work is to be done. Would need to see a high volume , high range day to the downside to get something going along with some intermediate terms support levels being broken.
Will have daily updates for euro and es up later today, since the euro finally broke out of the range it was stuck in , it is worth looking at again beyond intraday scalps. Gold remains a manipulated puzzle.
Congrats on getting through the longest / chartless rant in esecfutures.com history, as previously mentioned, will be back tonight with regular chart/ actionable level updates later on tonight.
Even broken clock is right twice a day:
Exhibit 1: 12:55pm EST / ES 990, 4 pts off highs
Exhibit 2: 4:15pm EST , ES close 982 - shooting star style
Now only missing:
Exhibit 3: Gap down in the morning
Exhibit 4: Unfilled gap and a little pause in the markets.
Lucky guess so far, will be back with full analysis later tonight, if you haven’t had a chance yet check out the two previous posts about sentiment.
Bears did a decent job minor damage earlier in the week and had every reason to push it lower yesterday. But as mentioned previously bulls are in full control and the funds who have to chase performance and whoever else is buying up this market could care less about dollar strength, auctions, case schiller or anything else.
Game plan is simple: Scalp intraday setups and dont get caught up in the noise of what could should or would and let the charts guide you when the break down does occur.
As always will be posting key intraday levels on Twitter @esecfutures
while all the technicals were addressed in Daily Market Summary, it is also worth looking at the market sentiment via good old friend BPNYA - NYSE bullish percent Index.
Orange - warning track of overly bullish sentiment
Red - “bullish lunacy” level, rarely seen bullish sentiment frequently resulting in market reversals.
While May / June double top of sentiment reached 75.5 reading, highest in at least 4 years, it is evident that more upside in sentiment and markets is possible, but historically one should be very cautions on the “warning track” and especially the ” bullish lunacy” zone.
Market Gaped UP and never looked back since future reopened for trading after the close yesterday.
To summarize, this incredible OPEX squeeze has created some rare technical setups, next step is to take advantage of them now.
As always it pays to fade the crowd, and it seems like bull train is way overcrowded.
Will post charts and details later today. Lots to look at.
Cheers and be safe
Very interesting day last night, after finding support previous sell off lows ES rallied back up to “brick wall” 882 level , filled the gap and continued to rally, luckily i managed to capitalize on most of the first 3 moves but not the last run up, should have listened to my analysis from last night:
Key resistnace levels before 910 are 882-884 “brick wall” area and multiple time s/r level, which will also be laminated with 200ema hourly. Break above that key level will like result in test of 896-898 monthly 50% level.
Will post full updates for Euro gold and ES later tonight
have a great rest of the day
Very boring and choppy day today, unless of course you read very timely post form last night above using opening range:
And are familiar with the 50-61% retracement trade:
Lets take a look at opening range :
Excellent gap fill tips, multiple time s/r level. Laminated with some S/r , ambush, gap fill , vwap levels very good clues today
Will post charts with details on key levels later on tonight. Will also try to knock out some more very basic money printing strategy posts like OR last night, depending on how tired I am.
have a great rest of the day