http://twitpic.com/h9086 - Why not 61% retrcmnt,200ma(purple) & trendline?

…..

Cause its NQ weeklys?

http://twitpic.com/h90ad

just saying…

UPDATE:

WRONG by 0.005

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From useless-guess-for-future-i-told-you-so purposes department. Calling the low from this morning THE low for the king … errr prince dollar ….

Cheers

p.s.
Be sure to remind me when/if i’m wrong to update

This is coming to you live from random thoughts / we’ve seen stranger things happen department …

- 666 on 3-6-9 was the low of the current bear market
- July low was put in almost exactly at 12:34:56 on 7-8-9

Tomorrow is 9-9-9  (6 months from the low) … with BO giving a speech on health care sometime at night .. so 9:09:09 Pm is also in play (just in case they want to get real fancy in futures department )

Could we have a high put in somewhere in the area of oh.. lets say 666 + 369 .. 1035?

Just saying….

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Back to scheduled programing and key technical level only udpates starting with next post.

Victory for the bears certainly has a pinch of sarcasm to it, but bears which have been completely wiped out and taken to the woodshed will now have to cling onto something via the “less bad” method, as bulls did since March.

Bears managed to hold ES down a whopping 4.00!!! In the face of incredible squeeze in financials, especially AIG, dollar reaching new 2009 lows and of course the still present dip hungry buyers and performance chasing funds. This might be slight sign of exhaustion in the rally.

Absolutely no technical damage done to the markets yet. The first two dip buyer levels posted in yesterdays update ended up being overnight and intraday lows. Inraday low was also marked by 2 day -3 sig level while trading below -3 1 day sigma level for that particular hour, which meant the move was rather extended and there was a decent chance of reversal, considering it happened right in the support zone, it was a very very nice setup, which I tweeted about live and made a blog post.

That also happened as all indexes reached their average daily trading range, here is the EOD summary of index and commodity trading range, as you see today was very narrow for most fx:
TFU09    112.0    -0.89%
NQU09    106.4    -0.98%
YMU09    104.3    -0.47%
ESU09    95.6    -0.40%
CDU09    84.4    0.27%
ADU09    80.0    -0.31%
BPU09    78.9    0.37%
JYU09    74.8    0.23%
GCZ09    70.7    -0.30%
ECU09    67.8    0.07%
SFU09    64.9    -0.08%
DXU09    64.3    -0.30%

Check yesterday’s daily update for support levels , those are still valid. The weekly picture is also the same.

Will be back with full daily update later tonight, hopefully will dig up some more nuggets for clues.

Follow me on Twitter @esecfutures for post alerts as well as key intraday level and technical information , which has been rather spot on lately.

Have a great rest of the day

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Nothing changed at all today. Intraday setups continue to work just fine, but in bigger picture bulls are in full control for now and more buyers keep coming in at smallest support levels.

Will have daily update up later tonight with key levels to watch, they will be very similar to yesterdays update.

Today most dollar, most fx pairs and indexes took a break, here is % of average range summary:
GCZ09    144.6
TFU09    121.1
CDU09    110.0
JYU09    105.2
YMU09    75.3
ESU09    75.6
ADU09    73.9
NQU09    72.0
BPU09    65.4
SFU09    59.7
DXU09    56.1
ECU09    46.5

As always will post notifications of new posts as well as intraday setups on my twitter account @esecfutures

have a great rest of the day

Vlad

Hey Traders,

firstly, the whole BAC things blows my mind, pay out 3.6 Billion in bonuses and pay 33million of fines for it, sound like a pretty good deal, they should super size the offer to 100 million fines to pay 11Bil bonuses….

Today was yet another lesson in Dont Fight Momentum 101, this market continues to move up, so much to it, the “reasons” and “explanations” behind it are pure BS, since it goes up on good and bad earnings, news and fx strength.

Speaking of FX strength, dollar took a big dump today to new yearly lows. Some are looking for possible reversal around these levels, which would actually make sense considering where we are on the weekly / monthly SP500 charts (see last nights updates)

Here is a quick summary of average range % traded today for the instruments i track:
ECU09    162.1    1.15%
BPU09    158.8    1.33%
DXU09    147.4    -0.98%
SFU09    136.4    0.85%
CDU09    116.0    1.10%
ESU09    110.5    1.65%
YMU09    105.7    1.33%
NQU09    93.2    1.59%
TFU09    91.7    1.37%
GCQ09    85.1    0.30%
ADU09    83.6    0.71%
JYU09    79.0    -0.63%
The longer this run continues the more support is being built on the downside and more work is to be done. Would need to see a high volume , high range day to the downside to get something going along with some intermediate terms support levels being broken.

Will have daily updates for euro and es up later today, since the euro finally broke out of the range it was stuck in , it is worth looking at again beyond intraday scalps. Gold remains a manipulated puzzle.

Congrats on getting through the longest / chartless rant in esecfutures.com history, as previously mentioned, will be back tonight with regular chart/ actionable level updates later on tonight.

Cheers

Vlad

Even broken clock is right twice a day:

Exhibit 1: 12:55pm EST / ES 990, 4 pts off highs

Exhibit 2: 4:15pm EST , ES close 982 - shooting star style

Now only missing:

Exhibit 3: Gap down in the morning

Exhibit 4: Unfilled gap and a little pause in the markets.

Lucky guess so far, will be back with full analysis later tonight, if you haven’t had a chance yet check out the two previous posts about sentiment.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Bears did a decent job minor damage earlier in the week and had every reason to push it lower yesterday. But as mentioned previously bulls are in full control and the funds who have to chase performance and whoever else is buying up this market could care less about dollar strength, auctions,  case schiller or anything else.

Game plan is simple: Scalp intraday setups and dont get caught up in the noise of what could should or would and let the charts guide you when the break down does occur.

As always will be posting key intraday levels on Twitter @esecfutures

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

while all the technicals were addressed in Daily Market Summary, it is also worth looking at the market sentiment via good old friend BPNYA - NYSE bullish percent Index.

Orange - warning track of overly bullish sentiment
Red - “bullish lunacy” level, rarely seen bullish sentiment frequently resulting in market reversals.

While May / June double top of sentiment reached 75.5 reading, highest in at least 4 years, it is evident that more upside in sentiment and markets is possible, but historically one should be very cautions on the “warning track” and especially the ” bullish lunacy” zone.

Cheers

Market Gaped UP and never looked back since future reopened for trading after the close yesterday.

Notes:

• Bend over and grab the ankles pattern played out to the tick
• Relatively low volume for the move of this magnitude
• Adv - Decl recorded highest reading since April 2nd
• Momentum indicator recorded a reading only seen 2 other time since bear market started, ironically enough last time it was seen During January 6 high at the same levels as ES is right now.
• Only overhead resistance left before highs is 935.25 gap fill.
• Put/Call ratio which was screaming buy at the bottom / and head and shoulders break down is not signaling buy.
• With 35 minutes to go, already had incredible volatility expansion across most the instruments I track, here is % of ATR:
  CDU09    168.7
  SFU09    136.2
  YMU09    148.5
  NQU09    138.7
  GCQ09    120.6
  ECU09    119.0
  ESU09    128.4
  ADU09    108.1
  JYU09    97.3
  BPU09    79.4

To summarize, this incredible OPEX squeeze has created some rare technical setups, next step is to take advantage of them now.

As always it pays to fade the crowd, and it seems like bull train is way overcrowded.

Will post charts and details later today. Lots to look at.

Cheers and be safe

Vlad

Very interesting day last night, after finding support previous sell off lows ES rallied back up to “brick wall” 882 level , filled the gap and continued to rally, luckily i managed to capitalize on most of the first 3 moves but not the last run up, should have listened to my analysis from last night:

Key resistnace levels before 910 are 882-884 “brick wall” area and multiple time s/r level, which will also be laminated with 200ema hourly. Break above that key level will like result in test of 896-898 monthly 50% level.

Some notes:

• market made a huge move towards the OPEX Max Pain level ~910
• Biggest up day this month on very strong internals and Super Woman MW
• Very wide range day with all main indexes trading 165-175% of average range.
• Most FX pairs remained relatively quiet besides CAD. Euro continues to be stuck in consolidation range.
• Back to back to back very high  put/call ratio finally got the bigger pop off support
• ES paused at 50% retracement from yesterdays wekened ES update
• Besides this retracement there isnt much in the way of ES getting to the top of the channel on hourly and big retracement
  

Will post full updates for Euro gold and ES later tonight

have a great rest of the day

Vlad

Very boring and choppy day today, unless of course you read very timely post form last night above using opening range:

• Opening Range

And are familiar with the 50-61% retracement trade:

• Ambush Trade
• S/R reversals

Lets take a look at opening range :

Excellent gap fill tips, multiple time s/r level. Laminated with some S/r , ambush, gap fill , vwap levels very good clues today

===============================

Market Thoughts:

• Very narrow range day today after a monster day yesterday , between 50-60% of average range for major indeces, will write this off as consolidation/rest/pause day
• Got some bounce from extreme oversold conditions, is this it? few targets of 893, 898, 903 possible (well shoot, everything is possible in this market)
• This market is not going anywhere without crude
• All FX pairs has a huge bounce against the dollar out of extremely oversold conditions and are approaching some levels to try to join the possible new trend
• Put/Call ratio didn’t disappoint today, got a bounce
• Put/Call closed at 1.07 bullish

Will post charts with details on key levels later on tonight. Will also try to knock out some more very basic money printing strategy posts like OR last night, depending on how tired I am.

have a great rest of the day

Vlad