Closing Bell: Closed at the highs, another nutty day in this market.
Update 3:52pm EST: Another new high followed by higher high with no high $tick. Last 23 minutes should be interesting. EC seems to have paused in daily ambush zone.
Update 3:27 pm EST: EC/6E 1.324 is daily 50% , watch for reaction in that area for further direction
Update 3:18pm EST: Looks like we could have big H&S setting up , that recent low is also daily 38% retacement with daily 50% at 794
Update 2:51pm est: every new high since 796 today retraced almost exacly 23.6% from overnight lows, current 23.6% is at 802
Update 2:45 PM est : new $tick low of the day, broke through the bottom of the channel from couple updates ago. Larger time frames (usually slightly lagging) not indicating trend change yet. Be careful on both sides of the trade going into last hour.
Update 2:26pm est: check out these fib range expansions, 812.75 is next target considering we have had a high not confirmed by new high tick
fibrangeexpansions
Update 2:16pm est: new high no new $tick hod, 809.5 break of ambush zone with no further ambushes till rally highs. All time frames trend bullish. Euro continues pre ECB snoozefest
Update 2:08 pm EST: new highs confirmed by high tick, no particular reason to get out of longs yet
Update 1:55, new highs, not confirmed by new high tick, looks like retest of previously mentioned levels is imminent. here is a new channel to keep an eye one:
2009-04-01_1355newchannel
Update 1:40pm EST: Trading above yesterdays highs and above 809 could get very painful for the bulls
Update 1:30pm EST: backtest of trendline successful for now, larger trends not showing any weakness just yet. 2500 share is chopping between bullish bearish with small market gyrations, will keep you posted.
2009-04-01_1332intradaytrend
Update 1:01pm EST: bullish case you be backetst of previous resistance of a trendline and 800 high
2009-04-01_1300backtestBearish case is that we are still in 803 ambush zone
Update 12:55pm est: 800 is a level to watch (ambush and previous resistance), break below means we are likely to retest daily 50%.
Update 12:31pm EST: Watching ES uptrend channel for clues in the ambush zone
2009-04-01_1231
Update 12:15pm EST: ES is now above the trendline and in 803-809 ambush zone, looks like retest of yesterday’s highs is likely.
Update 11:19am EST: euro came back and made a lower low in the ambush zone, with most time frames rolling over to bearish, mixed signals, but trend and weakness suggest 1.3167 before 1.3289
Update 11:10: ES found resistance from trendline connecting two recent highs, watch for 803 on the way up, 791 previous overnight double top and 789.5 daily 50% on the way down. 2500tick trend has reversed to red, 100k still green
2009-04-01_1109trendline
Update 11:02am EST: euro tested 1.3228 and found short term support, looking for retest of 1.328 for completion of little sloppy inverse H&S, failure of the ambush zone probably means heading back to 1.3167 or even 1.3120
Update 10:41am EST: broke above smaller ambush, retest of 803 ambush zone and yesterday’s highs seems likely, break above those levels could result in a cruel joke on the bears
2009-04-01_1040es
Update 10:28am: magic green box held short term, 787.75 is 50% retracement from daily lows.
Update 10:18am: market seems to be very strong, 100k share trend is trying to close second green bar. Breaking above 797 could mean retest of 803 ambush zone
Update 10:16am: after better than expected econ data ES is pushing up against some overnight resistance and ambush zone, this level is critical in determining where this goes next, gap fill is also in this area.
2009-04-01_1015
Update 9:37am: Gap Central! After breaching yesterday’s lows, first resistance on the way down is 766.5. Watch for short term resistance at 785.25 on the way up.
gapcentral
Update 9:18am: possible inverse head and shoulders forming on the euro, pullback to 1.3228 and retest of 1.33 would form a perfect right shoulder, shall that h&s play out the target of that formation is right into 50% retracement of the whole down move, see (Euro Rally Targets)
eurohs
Good Morning Traders,
rather eventful overnight session for the euro, going down 120 pips and recovering most of it, looks like EC is heading for a retest of 1.334. ES is a lot weaker than the euro this morning, down 10.0 on the overnight session. 793.25 is still a level to watch if bulls were to make a run at this. Levels from daily and overnight analysis have not changed.
Pre-Open Trend Summary:
2009-04-01_0908morningtrendsEC Trend is bullish on all time frames, suggesting retest of 1.334 rather likely. ES Signals are rather bearish, will be watching for trend changes through the day, bearish set ups will be favored for now.
Good Trading to all