Hey Traders,

Not many new developments in the markets today, regardless of higher high and lower low being made. The resistance level still remains the big 1014 - 38% retracement of the bear market, along with backtests of two previous trendlines:

With intermediate term resistance level being retracement zone from the highs - ES 998.75, with break above 1001 making retest of highs likely.

Here are the support levels:

Support levels:
989s - today’s low, 1 week 61% fib and also previous s/r level
984-986.5s - 2 week 50% retracement as well as previous spike high, and 984.5 gap fill from 7/31
974-975 - 7/29 gap fill as well 23.6% retracement of the whole 3 week rally
- Will also be keeping an eye on 200ema hourly laminated with these support levels, it should also be key level, its almost been a month since ES touched it.

Everything will be up to the job numbers tomorrow 830am EST

BPNYA sentiment set a new record high today, level not seen in at least 3 years, maybe ever:

This record sentiment certainly has to be a warning sign, but so far those 77.3% bulls have been right riding the wave of panic momentum buying, tomorrow should be one of most telling days in a while.

Today’s % of average range summary:

BPU09    149.0 - Huge day due to BOE
TFU09    117.2*
YMU09    116.2*
GCZ09    112.6
NQU09    111.7*
ESU09    109.3* - Indeces all traded above average range
JYU09    98.5
DXU09    98.1
CDU09    96.8
ADU09    86.4
ECU09    74.4
SFU09    66.4

For bears to get something going, they would need to break these support levels and likely put together a trend down day squeezing some of late longs without having their work be nothing more than a buying opportunity for end of day ramp up.

Tomorrow will be huge day, will keep you posted on intraday internals and technicals via my twitter account @esecfutures, now you can also find the widge with my latest update in the right sidebar.

Good luck and good trading tomorrow

Cheers

Vlad

$ES_F 986.5 big level, s/r level, weekly retracement and 200ema hrly which hasnt been tagged in almost a month

Hey Traders,

I got all the rants out of my system in Victory for the Bears? post at the close, now a short sweet and to the point TA post.

Bullish sentiment set a new high today, levels that have not been seen in at least 3 years, if ever (stockcharts doesn’t go far enough to look):

Green overshoots?

As for resistance levels there is not much to change, here’s the weekly SP500 chart from EOD yesterday:

Dip buyer levels from yesterday;s update were surely bought up, with one marking overnight low, the other intraday low, here are support levels to watch tonight/tomorrow:

Firstly will be looking for 990.75-992 support/resistance band, with bigger retracement level + S/r level + 200 ema hourly to act as support in 984-985.5 area. If bears get some mojo together to get below that level I will be the first one to hurry up and post more support levels.

As always will be watching intraday technical and internals developments and tweeting them via  @esecfutures as well as posting key charts on the blog. EOD updates will also be posted.

Initial claims will surely kick off the fun tomorrow at 830am EST.

Good luck and great trading to all

Vlad

Victory for the bears certainly has a pinch of sarcasm to it, but bears which have been completely wiped out and taken to the woodshed will now have to cling onto something via the “less bad” method, as bulls did since March.

Bears managed to hold ES down a whopping 4.00!!! In the face of incredible squeeze in financials, especially AIG, dollar reaching new 2009 lows and of course the still present dip hungry buyers and performance chasing funds. This might be slight sign of exhaustion in the rally.

Absolutely no technical damage done to the markets yet. The first two dip buyer levels posted in yesterdays update ended up being overnight and intraday lows. Inraday low was also marked by 2 day -3 sig level while trading below -3 1 day sigma level for that particular hour, which meant the move was rather extended and there was a decent chance of reversal, considering it happened right in the support zone, it was a very very nice setup, which I tweeted about live and made a blog post.

That also happened as all indexes reached their average daily trading range, here is the EOD summary of index and commodity trading range, as you see today was very narrow for most fx:
TFU09    112.0    -0.89%
NQU09    106.4    -0.98%
YMU09    104.3    -0.47%
ESU09    95.6    -0.40%
CDU09    84.4    0.27%
ADU09    80.0    -0.31%
BPU09    78.9    0.37%
JYU09    74.8    0.23%
GCZ09    70.7    -0.30%
ECU09    67.8    0.07%
SFU09    64.9    -0.08%
DXU09    64.3    -0.30%

Check yesterday’s daily update for support levels , those are still valid. The weekly picture is also the same.

Will be back with full daily update later tonight, hopefully will dig up some more nuggets for clues.

Follow me on Twitter @esecfutures for post alerts as well as key intraday level and technical information , which has been rather spot on lately.

Have a great rest of the day

Vlad

http://twitpic.com/cutm0 - $ES_F / $SPX at key support level, below could see a trip to 985s $ES_F

Hey Traders,

Today bullish sentiment has reached the level last seen in Feb 2007:

Every intermediate term high was made since the bear market began was made on much less bullish sentiment.

While we have received a crash course in not fighting momentum of panic buying public and fund managers and that well remain the way things go, until well … its not.

Along with extreme sentiment, SP500 is also approaching a key retracement level of the bear market and backtest of few key levels:

Besides this 1014 retracement and two trendlines meeting at 1020 (this week), technically (all bias, sentiment aside) there is no reason for SP500 not to test the top of old channel and 50% retracement of the whole bear market ~1120

Yesterday I went way overboard highlighting 4 support levels where dip buyers would be expected to step in, ES futures barely got to the first one when ES got bought up and propelled to new highs end of day.

Here is the hourly chart with what looks like a wedge forming and highlighted levels that are expected to attract some buyers, also some of the levels bears need to break to have a chance to get anything going to the downside:

The longer this goes on the more support is built up and more work bears have to do, if bears can break some levels and cause panic buyer squeze / profit taking stops getting hit it could get really interesting. Untill then will continue scalping intraday setups (updates on intraday levels and itnernals via @esecfutures on Twtitter).

There are some very sobering stories out there in the blogosphere about people getting hurt in this rally, hopefully you are not one of them

Good Trading

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Nothing changed at all today. Intraday setups continue to work just fine, but in bigger picture bulls are in full control for now and more buyers keep coming in at smallest support levels.

Will have daily update up later tonight with key levels to watch, they will be very similar to yesterdays update.

Today most dollar, most fx pairs and indexes took a break, here is % of average range summary:
GCZ09    144.6
TFU09    121.1
CDU09    110.0
JYU09    105.2
YMU09    75.3
ESU09    75.6
ADU09    73.9
NQU09    72.0
BPU09    65.4
SFU09    59.7
DXU09    56.1
ECU09    46.5

As always will post notifications of new posts as well as intraday setups on my twitter account @esecfutures

have a great rest of the day

Vlad

$ES_F wedge and channel to keep an eye on - http://twitpic.com/cqtyp $$

Hey Traders,

new highs were set today on SP500 and coveted 1000 mark was captured on both Case SP500 and emini ES futures index. So what now?

Big picture did not change one bit, for weekly and monthly charts, check out yesterday’s monthly analysis.

It has been clear that market momentum and panic / performance chasing  makes good/bad news, earnings and dollar irrelevant.

While big picture remains the same, for bears to get something getting to the downside the following support levels would need to get taken out (also possible long scalp levels if it matches your particular system setup):

993 - Previous rally high, 990.25 - 3 day 50% retracement (from previously respected fib level), 983.50 - weekly fib level also previous significant s/r level and then 200ema which should be in right around the area. Nothing below there doesn’t deserve mention at this moment as bears cant get much more than few ticks of downside going.

As always will keep posting key intraday technicals and internals intraday via my twitter account @esecfutures and will post key charts on the blog.

I would also watch this 377 tick chart for clues, that trendline seems to be respected for past several days.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

firstly, the whole BAC things blows my mind, pay out 3.6 Billion in bonuses and pay 33million of fines for it, sound like a pretty good deal, they should super size the offer to 100 million fines to pay 11Bil bonuses….

Today was yet another lesson in Dont Fight Momentum 101, this market continues to move up, so much to it, the “reasons” and “explanations” behind it are pure BS, since it goes up on good and bad earnings, news and fx strength.

Speaking of FX strength, dollar took a big dump today to new yearly lows. Some are looking for possible reversal around these levels, which would actually make sense considering where we are on the weekly / monthly SP500 charts (see last nights updates)

Here is a quick summary of average range % traded today for the instruments i track:
ECU09    162.1    1.15%
BPU09    158.8    1.33%
DXU09    147.4    -0.98%
SFU09    136.4    0.85%
CDU09    116.0    1.10%
ESU09    110.5    1.65%
YMU09    105.7    1.33%
NQU09    93.2    1.59%
TFU09    91.7    1.37%
GCQ09    85.1    0.30%
ADU09    83.6    0.71%
JYU09    79.0    -0.63%
The longer this run continues the more support is being built on the downside and more work is to be done. Would need to see a high volume , high range day to the downside to get something going along with some intermediate terms support levels being broken.

Will have daily updates for euro and es up later today, since the euro finally broke out of the range it was stuck in , it is worth looking at again beyond intraday scalps. Gold remains a manipulated puzzle.

Congrats on getting through the longest / chartless rant in esecfutures.com history, as previously mentioned, will be back tonight with regular chart/ actionable level updates later on tonight.

Cheers

Vlad

$ES_F 995 - vwap, top of OpRange & trendline (secreenshot from earlier http://twitpic.com/cmyfi ). Break = profit taking? $$

$ES_F trendline on TICK chart form Friday respected again, below looking at 990 level for clues http://twitpic.com/cmyfi $$