UPDATE:

WRONG by 0.005

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From useless-guess-for-future-i-told-you-so purposes department. Calling the low from this morning THE low for the king … errr prince dollar ….

Cheers

p.s.
Be sure to remind me when/if i’m wrong to update

Hey Traders,

Dollar put in some new lows today coming within a dime of the bottom of the channel posted in last night’s update. Here are short term levels to watch to possibly start building bullish case:

Both short dollar and long gold trades seem overcrowded, but not sure if its wise to chase either at this point. Here is first decent opportunity longer term entry i see on gold:

SP500 remains right in the middle of the wedge, which at this point would be right around 1050:

And the expected dip buyers levels on the way down for ES emini:

Firstly 1019 and then major 1014 retracement and s/r band. Below would be looking for those trendline to act as support.

There are plenty of fx moving news overnight as well as the following domestic market moving news tomorrow:

Good trading to all

Vlad

p.s.
dont forget we get to deal with the pleasures of rolling over the futures contracts for indexes and fx futs this week.

Hey Traders,

Lets take a long at whats going on with x-King Dollar, Euro and the oh-so-precious metal.

Firstly, Dollar has been trading in the channel, and yesterday, after another round of rumors about replacement reserve currency, this time from UN , had made a new yearly low. It has also reached some very oversold short term conditions, so not expecting a push much lower than the bottom of the channel on this move.

Break of 50ema (red line) and some recent highs would likely take this to the top of the channel, break of which would also result in break of this falling wedge on the weekly charts, move above that level would like result in a very significant retracement, likely of at least half of the move down from the high into area of  200ema on daily and weekly charts.

On the same chart we can also see that gold has broken key long term trendline, and has completeled a big head and shoulders patter going back to 1Q of 2008.  Target of this paticular formation is in mid 1300s. While backtest of the wedge is quiet likely, I would be very cautious in picking tops in this crazy metal.

Will be watching dollar index for clues on gold and euro, which tagged 61.8% retracement of the move from all time highs today and also tagged a trendline that came in play several times in past year or so. Besides this level there are really no bullish targets on euro besides some of the previous swings highs (blue lines)

While I will continue scalpig all the instruments in every direction to put some Ramen noodles on the table, it is nice to konw where we are in bigger picture. Shall market be approaching near term top, there might be some very nice swing opportunities in FX.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

While gold and currencies remain great scalping instruments, there haven’t really been many developments longer term picture wise.

Firstly, the dollar, the following three trendlines on hourly chart seem to be very much respected over the past several weeks:

break above higlighted resistance level would like take DX to the top of the big channel on daily, break below higlighted support would make new yearly low for a likely trip to the bottom of the same channel:

red line - 50ema daily is expected to act as resistance on its 3rd test, with big test of two recent highs at major s/r level and the top of the channel. On break above 50ema, highs and the channel I will be expecting a trip to 200ema daily and at least 38% retracement of the dollar down move.

Gold, has been trading in own little world lately, consolidating into a tight wedge, with fireworks surely soon to follow, likely later this month:

Euro has also been surprisingly quiet, after breaking out above major trendline:

Chart is pretty self explanatory.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

no technical developments today, choppy boring day, support levels remain the same as yesterday, see previous post.

As far as intraday levels and interntanls will be posting them in the chat as well as twitter @esecfutures

Cheers

Vlad

.

Hey Traders,

After once-in-a-decade July lift off and continued momentum push through August, capped off by last week’s opex shakeout with a push to new highs, markets are now in the ignore zone, where good/bad news, earnings, currency events simply do not matter in the face of momentum and performance chasing funds.

For a month now market sentiment is at multi year highs and internals point to levels not seen in a veyr long time, namely stocks above 200 day moving average:

So now that “recession is over” as im told by CNBS, might as well pass it on:

Lets zoom out several dozen years and see where we are in the big picture:

The backtest of the channel lines up right with October 2008 high (not that this high is a critical level, but bears are grasping for straws as far as resistance levels here) with the wedge resistance right below:

If bears to decide to put together a pullback of more than 2% off of yearly highs, here are the support levels to watch:

The chart is pretty self explanatory.

Again, will be watching dollar closely, as it seems to be forming a box:

The top of the range is laminated with 50ema and channel right above, on break of both could see a bigger move up as dollar related sentiment is also EXTREMELY bearish and trade seems to be overcrowded.

Will post smaller time frame s/r levels for ES in the morning and as always will keep posting intraday market technicals & internals updates via my Twitter account @esecfutures

Good luck and good trading to all

Vlad

p.s.

next week is the last week of summer, which means we are likely in for some low volume choppy action.

Hey Traders,

if you haven’t had a chance yet, check out previous Dollar Analysis post levels on which will obviously be crucial as to how Euro plays out.

Here are major s/r levels on the daily chart, pretty self explanatory, with red line being 50ema which kept euro in check today:

here is hourly chart with expected resistance levels:

first level being 200ema hourly laminted with a retracement, and then a trendline. Also, not that if lower low is made, the fib levels will naturally be a little bit different.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

while some people are calling for reversal in the dollar, lets take a look at key levels:

Last week there were only 3% Dollar bulls, so sentiment was certainly at a very rare extreme. Today dollar put in a slightly higher high, next level to watch will be 50ema (red line), which also lines up with previous s/r level. Above 50ema will be looking at the channel which is just above 80.0 area this week. On the break of the channel things could get really interesting as the overcrowded short dollar trade traders will likely be squeezed. Then will be looking at previous highs at 81 level, with pullback to backtest the channel form 81 level would form inverted head and shoulders pattern with a target of huge level in 84s of 200 day moving average as well as major swing low.

If the stock market rally continues we will very likely see a new low and another test of the bottom of the channel. Will be keeping an eye on this very important chart, as first key level is less than 1/4 of a % away.

Cheers

Vlad

Same old Yen channel still seems intact, with top of the channel laminated with 200ema hourly. Break above that channel and recent 1.06 highs would like be bearish for equities.