ES_F 1095 - http://pic.gd/ec4533 - Measured move, S/r , fib, retracement, is expected to be a key level on the ay down.
Market Analysis for November, 2009
$ES_F Trendline from November lows&s/r level at ~1100 , below backtest of previous channel and 200ema hrly likely - http://pic.gd/77c3a4 $$
“Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it.”
I pulled this quote directly from the opening paragraphs of the free Elliott Wave Online Tutorial. It’s critical to your understanding of how markets really work.
Now some might say, “What’s wrong with following the crowd? I’m just following the easy money, right?” The problem with this logic is that most investors follow the crowd (or herd) all the way up the mountain … then right off the cliff.
Look at today’s situation: How many people you know got out of the stock market before the October 2007 top? Heck, how many you know cut losses and cashed out even six months after the top?
If you’re like most people, your answer ranges from “zero” to “very few.”
Being a successful investor over the long-term means you must always strive to be part of that “very few.”
Famed market analyst Robert Prechter, the leading practitioner of the Elliott wave method of market analysis, once said, “Missing a market move may be a shame, but getting caught on the wrong side of one means you lose money. People who have gone through the experience know there’s a big difference.”
To be a successful individual investor, you must understand what it means to take risks when the probabilities are behind you and shun risk when they’re not. Robert Prechter’s method of analysis, the Elliott Wave Principle, is designed to help him and his subscribers do just that.
Buy and hold is dead. Trading isn’t any easier. Having a big-picture outlook doesn’t mean you must “set it and forget it,” as the late-night infomercial guy says. And it certainly doesn’t mean you must be in and out of the markets every day. It simply means you can see the forest for the trees.
You can go long when the markets are behind you, short if you have the guts, and stay out completely when the risk is too high. Simply put, adopting an independent, unbiased method is the very best way to ensure you don’t get caught up in the investment herd.
Elliott wave analysis is not for everyone. It’s highly technical. And it presents probabilities, not certainties (there’s no such thing as a black box trading system). The most successful investors and analysts – the guys who are still around after 30 years like Prechter – are able to assign probabilities and assess risk; and they act only when probabilities are high and risk is not.
I encourage you to learn more about the method that has kept Robert Prechter out of the herd and in the game for more than three decades. His company, Elliott Wave International, has an extremely useful Elliott Wave Tutorial for free online. It’s broken up into 10 lessons across 50 pages, so it’s easy to read and review at your leisure.
Check it out at the link below, give yourself some time to digest it, and decide for yourself if Elliott is a method you should add to your investment arsenal.
few interesting thigns worth noting on the dailys after todays session:
- Trades above previous rally highs on 2 consecutive days and failed to close above
- Today’s candle closed below the low of the high candle (say that 5 times fast), thus triggering a sell on the daily’s.
Here are some levels to be watching on the hourlys:
Resistance is the higlighted area - 50% retracement form today’s high, will update on the level later depending on what final low is made.
Support levels are highlighted:
- trendline + 200ema hrly + 38% retracement of recent move.
- 50% retracement and volume cluster
- 61% retracement and previous s/r band
- backtest of trendline that has been previously respected several times.
Will update when new technical developments take place.
Hourly chart is rather self explanatory, will be watching following trendlines and fibs, key levels are highlighted:
Also note a boji daily candle ( obviously, its a term for backtest Doji :-P ) on the daily chart. Another thing worth noting is that market has worked off some oversold conditions and considering the candle formation and put/call ratio have to favor downside slightly, but as always will have to listen to market for clues.
Thats about all as far as key levels. Most of this stuff I tweeted about live on twitter, aka Backtest / fib resistance levels and some other stuff, so if you aren’t feel free to follow @esecfutures (while i might dissappear for a month or two again, at least you might be able to catch me on a lucky guess day)
Some review (in case you missed some of the tweets)
After that target was reached, target of the intraday double top and 50% retracement from the bottom of the move lined up in 1042s (see hourly chart, we are currently stuck at it overnight)
Good trading to all
Thanks to all who have emailed, commented and tweeted to me, everything is going better, hopefully I will be back full force “soon”