Hey Traders,

haven’t been able to post any updates Friday or over the weekend, dealing with some non trading related and family business. Will be back at it once everything gets sorted out to a reasonable level.

Good luck and good trading his week

Vlad

http://twitpic.com/h9086 - Why not 61% retrcmnt,200ma(purple) & trendline?

…..

Cause its NQ weeklys?

http://twitpic.com/h90ad

just saying…

UPDATE:

WRONG by 0.005

————————-

From useless-guess-for-future-i-told-you-so purposes department. Calling the low from this morning THE low for the king … errr prince dollar ….

Cheers

p.s.
Be sure to remind me when/if i’m wrong to update

Hey Traders,

Dollar put in some new lows today coming within a dime of the bottom of the channel posted in last night’s update. Here are short term levels to watch to possibly start building bullish case:

Both short dollar and long gold trades seem overcrowded, but not sure if its wise to chase either at this point. Here is first decent opportunity longer term entry i see on gold:

SP500 remains right in the middle of the wedge, which at this point would be right around 1050:

And the expected dip buyers levels on the way down for ES emini:

Firstly 1019 and then major 1014 retracement and s/r band. Below would be looking for those trendline to act as support.

There are plenty of fx moving news overnight as well as the following domestic market moving news tomorrow:

Good trading to all

Vlad

p.s.
dont forget we get to deal with the pleasures of rolling over the futures contracts for indexes and fx futs this week.

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Hey Traders,

unfortunately there are not many clues from Mr Market these days, will have to be watching Dollar closely as well as see what happens with all the news this week.

ES/SP500 continues to be in the wedge, with top of the wedge resistance being about the only thing I see in the way of retracing 50% of bear market… (and yes , sentiment and various internals are at extreme multi year levels… but that doesnt seem to matter at this particular moment)

Besides the top of the wedge tehre’s a recent 1027.5 spike high and a fib in the way of retest of the highs:

To start building a bearish case ( a dummie mission of late) , will be watching higlighted support levels.

Will post key technical levels and market internals via @esecfutures on twitter intraday.

Cheers

Vlad

This is coming to you live from random thoughts / we’ve seen stranger things happen department …

- 666 on 3-6-9 was the low of the current bear market
- July low was put in almost exactly at 12:34:56 on 7-8-9

Tomorrow is 9-9-9  (6 months from the low) … with BO giving a speech on health care sometime at night .. so 9:09:09 Pm is also in play (just in case they want to get real fancy in futures department )

Could we have a high put in somewhere in the area of oh.. lets say 666 + 369 .. 1035?

Just saying….

————-

Back to scheduled programing and key technical level only udpates starting with next post.

Hey Traders,

Lets take a long at whats going on with x-King Dollar, Euro and the oh-so-precious metal.

Firstly, Dollar has been trading in the channel, and yesterday, after another round of rumors about replacement reserve currency, this time from UN , had made a new yearly low. It has also reached some very oversold short term conditions, so not expecting a push much lower than the bottom of the channel on this move.

Break of 50ema (red line) and some recent highs would likely take this to the top of the channel, break of which would also result in break of this falling wedge on the weekly charts, move above that level would like result in a very significant retracement, likely of at least half of the move down from the high into area of  200ema on daily and weekly charts.

On the same chart we can also see that gold has broken key long term trendline, and has completeled a big head and shoulders patter going back to 1Q of 2008.  Target of this paticular formation is in mid 1300s. While backtest of the wedge is quiet likely, I would be very cautious in picking tops in this crazy metal.

Will be watching dollar index for clues on gold and euro, which tagged 61.8% retracement of the move from all time highs today and also tagged a trendline that came in play several times in past year or so. Besides this level there are really no bullish targets on euro besides some of the previous swings highs (blue lines)

While I will continue scalpig all the instruments in every direction to put some Ramen noodles on the table, it is nice to konw where we are in bigger picture. Shall market be approaching near term top, there might be some very nice swing opportunities in FX.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

I wont be around to trade or participate in the chatroom tomorrow.

Support and Resistance levels on ES are still the same as in 2 previous posts.

Have a great weekend

Cheers

Vlad