< Update: please excuse my blogial diarrhea in this particular post, all you really need to know is the second chart>

Hey Traders,

markets once again throw something at us that hasn’t been seen in decade or more, namely:

  • Market consecutive day up streak
  • 5 day stochastics are at overbought levels seen only for the second time this millennium
  • Amount of traders WTF’ed by the happenings in the market

all that is great and or useless, since only price pays, and we as traders have to continue putting odds in our favor and trading high probability levels, intraday levels combined with internals continue to work, follow me on Twitter @esecfutures for intraday updates on key intraday levels and internals.

Longer term picture has still not changed, refer to the previous daily update for weekly chart with potential targets. On the daily chart in very overbought conditions ES has put in a “hanging man” candle, which is regarded to as a reversal candle
esdaily4

The two big support levels on the daily charts are the backtest of the previous resistance line & gapfill, with the same old key s/r band which will now be fortified by 100dma that will cross up above 200dma which should begin to flatten out here soon providing for added support if / when market retraces back down to that level.

The most important chart right now is the hourly chart:

eshourly4

There is a strong uptrend channel going , with price bouncing along 20ema for most of past several trading days and testing the 50ema today for the first time in over 6 days, finally finding support at bottom of the channel and 3day 50% retracement.

Will continue following this channel for clues on further direction. Ideal scenario for bears to start putting together a bearish would be the for today’s high to hold and for after market pop on AAPL earnings release to be a “failed high” and then proceed to break the bottom of the channel and make a lower low than today’s 939.5 low. If that happens will be loking for ES support in low 920s as next target.

With record overbought conditions have to favor some sort of rotation down from here, but have to respect the strong trend and watch for small technical breakdowns to start building bearish case. Currently bulls are 100% in control.

As always will keep posted with intraday& daily updates via Twitter and on this blog.

Good luck and Good Trading

Vlad