Today VWAP and 50% from lows kept the market up most of the day, also pinned to max pain level of 90 SPY / 900 ES most of the day

After 40 poing pop to max-pain level I have to be a bit suspicious about this move continuing much higher.

esdaily3

Short term momentum is now very overbought, seen only about once a month usually resulting in pullback with possibility of sideways move.

Above 61% line form two week high - ES 904, top of the channel and 50 retracement from high are about as high as ES could get on this overbought momentum imho.

eshrly

If channel and retracement are broken 61% line from highs of the rally and gap fill in 919s becomes the target.

On the downside will be watching 200ema and 50ema hourly ~890 and key s/r level at 882-884, below retest of lows likely.

Few other notes:

  • Very narrow ranges today with all indexes trading 60-65% of ave range, after ~170% day yesterday
  • FX also very quiet, besides CAD
  • Lots of market moving earnings and econ data this week, so be sure to mark them on your calendar

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To Summarize, the opex pop is about played out imho,

Key leves on the upside being 904, 910-912, on downside 890, 884, 865

As always will keep updating on Twitter @esecfutures and the blog as new technical developments take place

Best of luck and be careful in this crazy chop!

Cheers

Vlad