Today VWAP and 50% from lows kept the market up most of the day, also pinned to max pain level of 90 SPY / 900 ES most of the day
After 40 poing pop to max-pain level I have to be a bit suspicious about this move continuing much higher.
Short term momentum is now very overbought, seen only about once a month usually resulting in pullback with possibility of sideways move.
Above 61% line form two week high - ES 904, top of the channel and 50 retracement from high are about as high as ES could get on this overbought momentum imho.
If channel and retracement are broken 61% line from highs of the rally and gap fill in 919s becomes the target.
On the downside will be watching 200ema and 50ema hourly ~890 and key s/r level at 882-884, below retest of lows likely.
Few other notes:
- Very narrow ranges today with all indexes trading 60-65% of ave range, after ~170% day yesterday
- FX also very quiet, besides CAD
- Lots of market moving earnings and econ data this week, so be sure to mark them on your calendar
To Summarize, the opex pop is about played out imho,
Key leves on the upside being 904, 910-912, on downside 890, 884, 865
As always will keep updating on Twitter @esecfutures and the blog as new technical developments take place
Best of luck and be careful in this crazy chop!