Hey Traders,

another huge FX day, with “King” Dollar setting some major lows, here is % of average range summary:
GCQ09    194.4
SFU09    186.0
DXU09    167.6
ECU09    157.4
BPU09    152.3
JYU09    127.3
ADU09    105.8
YMU09    89.0
TFU09    81.1
ESU09    72.6
CDU09    71.2
NQU09    67.5
Another crazy week, with most important thing to take away from a week like this is that market momentum (or whatever else gets credited/blamed) is more important than news, earnings, econ data and even dollar strength. When the market goes up and funds have to chase performance at the same time squeezing out the most stubborn bears, nothing matters.

While there are signs of rally exhaustion, bears got many technical levels to break to have a chance at getting anything going to the downside.

The fact that Markets didnt react to extreme dollar weakness add to hopes of the bears, these last two candles are surely promising as well, gap down monday would be ideal:

Will have a monthly analysis edition ready this weekend, some interesting developments along all time frames.

Get some rest and get ready to take on these crazy markets again

Cheers

Vlad

———

p.s.

if you appreciate what you find here, feel free to spread the word, follow me on twitter @esecfutures, retweet my updates once in a while and or link to this blog from yours.

http://twitpic.com/ca2zl - $ES_F / $SPX fireworks coming to a screen near you, perfect timing for end of month. $$

Yen College Fund Trendline http://twitpic.com/c9ael $$

Keep an eye on this $ES_F trendline on tick chart, it could have paid for your kid college fund http://twitpic.com/c99hi $$

Hey Traders,

Today’s dailys ended in a big shooting star after a gap up, with pro-gap (unfilled gap down) being a serious hint at near term move exhaustion.

Near term will be watching theses support level with 3 week trendline being back in play again:

On the upside minor resistnace expected at 50% retracement from highs, highs, then nothing much for another 20 points to key bear market fib and trendline. Will surely update on blog and twitter @esecfutures shall we get close.

On the downside, highlighted levels are expected to act as support:
retracement of most recent run up, , backtest of channel, 200ema hourly and s/r level and then major s/r level in mid 950s. It is clear that bears have a lot to do to get anything substantial going to the downside.

GDP numbers will be released in the morning which should be main market movers. Poor earnings releases after the close seem to be a non-factor at least judging by futures reaction at 10pm EST now.

Tomorrow is also last day of the month, so who knows what kind of magic that will add, not that we haven’t seen it all in past 3 weeks anyway.

May stops be with us tomorrow

Cheers

Vlad

Even broken clock is right twice a day:

Exhibit 1: 12:55pm EST / ES 990, 4 pts off highs

Exhibit 2: 4:15pm EST , ES close 982 - shooting star style

Now only missing:

Exhibit 3: Gap down in the morning

Exhibit 4: Unfilled gap and a little pause in the markets.

Lucky guess so far, will be back with full analysis later tonight, if you haven’t had a chance yet check out the two previous posts about sentiment.

Cheers

Vlad

This is kinda crazy…assuming my data feed is correct, today is only 6th time since ‘40 that $TRIN is >1.5 and $SPX is >+1.5%.

Re: the TRIN stats, the others all led to (very) short-term peak. The dates were 8/31/66, 8/16/71, 3/4/09, 5/26/09 and 6/1/09.

- @ sentiment trader

Gold Traders,

as of today there is more volume in the GCZ contract.

Cheers

the 1929-1930 equity rally lasted 147 days&was 46% The rally off the March 6th low this year has been 145 days and is 46% - Brian Shannon / Alphatrends

Hey Traders,

Bears did a decent job minor damage earlier in the week and had every reason to push it lower yesterday. But as mentioned previously bulls are in full control and the funds who have to chase performance and whoever else is buying up this market could care less about dollar strength, auctions,  case schiller or anything else.

Game plan is simple: Scalp intraday setups and dont get caught up in the noise of what could should or would and let the charts guide you when the break down does occur.

As always will be posting key intraday levels on Twitter @esecfutures

Cheers

Vlad

ES is testing key trendline in overnight session, also another backtest of previous key trendline. Chart is pretty self explanatory: