Market Analysis for June 30th, 2009

CNBC, Kneale, Zero Hedge and Denninger

Zero Hedge: Denis Lets Zero Have it

First, I have respect for Dennis - he lays out his beliefs (regardless if these beliefs are based on completely flawed foundations or not) and defends them, on prime time TV, in a “financial news” medium whose very existence every viewer realizes is contingent on not only the continued viability of massively bad debt-laden GE (due to its inextricable ties with GE Capital, which lent out more toxic second liens than virtually any other entity), but by implication, the well-being of the overall economy, as well as the continued financial support by PIMCO and other financial company sponsors who have explicit and implicit ties with the current administration, and who profit exclusively from a rising market. In retrospect, one can see where Dennis’ viewers may get confused by the blurry line between a hopelessly severe conflict of interest and honest personal opinion……………………………..

Denninger (Market Ticker): To Dennis Kneale: You’re An Idiot

Since Dennis saw fit this evening on CNBC to “go after” bloggers who in turn had gone after him, yet he omitted The Market Ticker, I’ll go ahead and put a full-on dredge out behind my stern and slow to 3kts.

And Dennis, if you would like me on your show, I’ll be happy to appear.  Phone is fine.  And I’m not anonymous, nor do I want to be - CNBC already has has my full bio, my full name, and my CNBC-standard disclosure document back with a digital signature affixed.  You can also “whois” this domain and get my full name and address.  Good enough?  Several employees of NBC Universal are on my forum and a CNBC producer has my direct email address - just ask around and I’m sure you can obtain it, and if you do email me I’ll be happy to call you at your convenience………..

Key Short Term ES Support

Hey Traders,

Fib confluence and previous 3 time high should be key support level to watch for short term trend clues:
essupport

Daily ES Futures Analysis

Hey Traders,

after very exciting day yesterday of tape chopping around in 2 pt range for most of the day on lightest volume since January 2nd, daily picture has not changed much, except for short term momentum indicator - 5day RSI is at overbought levels not seen since 5/6 and 4/3:
esdaily15

Note that today is also the last day of the month, quarter and half year.

If this market gets a pop today , be it on end of quarter window dressing anything, it would statistically present a decent shorting opportunity, so will be looking for shorts on any push higher.

ES is still in key retracement zone form the highs, with 926.5 being 61% line, on break above there are no clear resistance levels all the way to 938.5 unfilled gap, immediate push to that level would set up a very good probability short. Will have to see how market internals look shall market get up there, will keep you posted via twitter, blog updates and or chat.

eshourly5

For support will be watching fib confluence zones and retracements from 911.5 and 907.25 lows.

There are also some market moving news releases in the morning, so be careful during those time:

briefing

Have a great trading day

Vlad
@esecfutures

Daily Euro Analysis

Hey Traders,

daily euro picture remains the same, with only spike high of 1.4166 as resistance level on the way to retets of highs, as far as resistance levels I see:

eurodaily18

The same channels form last week on hourly charts are still working, will be watching retracement zone and backtest of one channel for intermediate term difrection:

euro60min

Cheers

Vlad

Daily Gold Analysis

Hey Traders

Not much has changed for gold since last daily updates, except momentum has reset to completely neutral, so move in either direction is likely, will be watching these key levels for gold:
golddaily_0011

Cheers

Vlad

International Data Releases

Hey Fx Traders,

come news releases to keep an eye on:
All times GMT for EST subtract 4 hours

econdata1

Cheers

Vlad