$EURUSD 61% line from thursday’s low lines up with 200ema hourly and previous s/r level http://twitpic.com/8q4t8
Market Analysis for June 28th, 2009
Last week we had 50ema cross above 200dma, and successfully backtested, finally, as I was getting tired about writing about 50ema x 200dma support pocket for weeks:
If that retracement zone does not hold, retest of highs would become rather likely.
On downside will keep an eye at Fridays lows and also fib confluence at 905 for support, on break below another fib confluence at 905. With major level of 50ema x 200dma pocket on the daily charts below.
This week will be pretty economic news heavy, with end of month/quarter/half year falling on Tuesday. This is also holiday shortened week with markets closed on Friday. Hopefully tape wont be very painful considering it being summer holiday week.
Good luck and best of trading this week
bigger term euro looks like it could be in a pennant, which considering it took almost a year to develop, could take a little while to play out:
Considering we are very near top will be watching that top support line closely, especially since this week it lines up with the high of the euro rally from earlier this month:
With intermediate support level at prevoius spike high 1.4166 on EC euro fx futures.
On the downside will be looking at major support level in mid 1.37s which is now laminated with daily 50 ema.
Shorter term will be watching following channels and trendlines (same one’s as from few days ago, price continues to react nicely at them)
Will also be watching retracement zone from 1.3886 at 1.4 (considering 1.4116 high holds) as it looks that it will laminate nicely with 200 ema hourly.
Will keep updated as more price action develops.
Gold tagged key retracement last week - 61% line retracement from April low and has bounced over $30 and entered short term oversold territory later in the week:
There are not many very clear trends and levels now, so will be watching for more tape to develop for further analysis that will be posted in daily and intraday updates.
Will be keeping an eye on reactions at 945 support / resistance band that has been tested twice last week , yet failed to close above on Friday. Also, two retracement levels from June highs at 952.6 and 962.
Below key retracement and previous low support at 913.2
The strong uptrend in place all of last week was broken on Friday and backtest of that trendline hapenning in area of key resistance levels on the daily charts would present for an interesting short oppotunity. On the downside before key 913 level will be watching retracement zone from lows for support. Will be keeping an eye on converging 20, 50 and 200 houlry emas for clues as well.
Support and Resistance Reversals happen all the time on all time frames and are very simple.
Previous broken support becomes resistance and previous broken resistance becomes support.
Here is a look at few examples from last few days alone.
- SP500 emini futures Spike high from overnight session on Thursday becoming support and low of the day on Friday. Also note few smaller s/r reversals in previous market sessions.
- ES emini support from one week, becoming resistance next week:
- Even after government intervention in the Franc earlier this week, support and resistance reversals still work:
- Euro stair stepping down and then up s/r reversal levels the past 3 days:
Support and resistance reversals are very easy to spot, happen in all markets on all time frames, when combined with other set ups are very powerful.
Support and resistance reversals are also valid with sloping trendlines, here is a great example during this recent rally of previous support becoming resistance on the SP500 emini
Only problem with diagona support and resistance reversals is that price could “ride” up/down previous s/r line before reversing, thus I prefer horizontal support and resistance reversals since entries and stops are more clear.
There has been increasing amount of outrage with SEC recently, you be the judge:
Zero Hedge: Sec Needs Your Feedback
….. Since FINRA and the Securities and Exchange Commission believe in going only after $1,000 insider traders with the full weight of their enforcement teams, yet ignore major market manipulation in futures and other markets, Zero Hedge wanted to present readers an opportunity to be heard by the market’s regulators. …..
Karl Denninger: Where are the cops?
This is not the first time something like this has happened and I continue to highlight them in The Ticker as a log of apparent criminal market manipulation and insider trading, the rampant practice of which has turned our capital market system into a joke with the public and “Not Privileged” being the recipient of repeated screw jobs at the expense of those who are unlawfully tipped off in front of these sorts of “news releases.”
Tim Knight: The Outrageous SEC
A number of months ago, a Sloper reached out to me to tell me his story of how the SEC had charged him with insider trading and how he had to defend his innocence (a seven-figure legal expense) in a preposterous case in which the SEC finally relented. I met him face-to-face, and we even briefly discussed co-authoring a book on his story. I was amazed at the things that I heard - including tales of outright fabrication of evidence by the inept and corrupt organization which we taxpayers fund - and was distraught to learn that the pressure of the entire ordeal had also destroyed a lengthy marriage.
Then yesterday I read this article in the New York Times which seemed awfully familiar. It tells of Richard Kwak, now 72 years old, who similarly faced a charge which he vowed to fight to his last breath. He spent over a million dollars defending himself, and - once again - was acquitted of charges. Here’s a small excerpt from the article: …