Hey Traders,

once in a few months chance on extreme oversold short term momentum is done now, so will have to look for next opportunities, on the upside expecting resistance on at 921 and 926 fib confluences/ambushes:

What is also very interesting is that 921 and 926 are 23.6% and 61% targets of ambush (50/61%) retracement play that was hit at the close:

If we are truly to continue the pullback those two are as food entries as any. On the downside will be watching the two ambush zones at 911 and 908.5 along with channel for support. Break below would make retest of lows likely and will be looking for 50ema x 200dma pocket to act as support below:

Tomorrow is an Opex Summer Friday, so hopefully get a short entry get first target hit and look away for the week, magic and patented WTF patterns of course likely.

Will updates as more price action develops via twitter and itnraday updates

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Euro has been persistently banging its head up against retracement zone from last week’s high for  most of last 2 days:

And on the downside finding support at retracement area from the lows and the bottom of the channel, with 50% retracement from yesterdays low also acting as excellent springboard today, especially when laminated with 50ema on hourly chart.

If the channel breaks down expecting a trip back to 1.373 lows which is also major s/r level on the daily charts, with 50ema quickly catching up to it and should be at / above it as soon as nex week:

Will also be watching that downtrend line on the daily chart of what could be a big flag on the daily chart, with break above that downtrend line making trip to big resistance line of two major swing highs likely (now that trendline also ligns up with June highs)

Will be keeping a close eye on the dollar chart for clue on further direction of euro

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Gold is reaching resolution point with monthly and yearly trends colliding. Gold has been bouncing down this channel on hourly all of June, including two tests of channel resistance today:

With break above this channel likely resulting in retest of previous s/r level, 200ema hourly and retracement of last week’s drop at 945. Break above would like result to a trip to 960 level.

Another key resistance has been 50ema, after breakind down on Monday, gold closed at or below every day.

On the downside suppor it expected at this uptrend line that goes back all the way to October 2008, on break below the trendlinewould expect retest of 926.50 lows and then 61% fib from April lows at 915.  Below there key support of 200dma at 900.

The two trendlines are now less than 10 point apart so I would anticipate this resolving next week at the latest.

Cheers

Vlad

Being absolute fanatic of electronic music and having seen whole world top 40 world DJs up and down the list several times in past few years, I absolutely cant pass up seeing Paul Van Dyk tonight :-P

Due to Michigan sucking and all venues closing down at 2am, I will be back for euro session, but if my updates seem a tad werid :-P, you know why

have a great rest of the night

Good long a few VTU09s tonight :-P

Vlad

Blog went over 300 posts this week, not bad for 2 months of existence:

Got over 300 twitter followers:

And Jabbify chat crashed 300 times during the first day of being on the site! Thanks a lot to everyone for stopping by, hopefully those issues will be resolved soon

Cheers

Vlad

Update Close:
Too bad market didn’t pull back at the open, would have set up for really nice opportunity.
Will have daily updates up later on today.
Have a great rest of the day

Vlad

===================

update 11:36am EST:
Jabbify is having some trouble here, sorry about that, will contact them later on tonight and see what can be done to improve performance.
Nothing much doing in the markets, waiting for shorting opportunities.

update 10:40 am eST:
Gold has just tested the same channel on hourly for the second time today:
Above the channel expect resistance at 945 fib and 200ema hourly. Big support line on the daily expected to act as support on the downside:

======================

Good Morning Traders,

ES plan today is very similar to what it was yesterday (market analysis for yesterday)

Put / Call ratio has put in a new higher high (probably due to OPEX but w/e) Historically it has produced a bounce withing next could of days, going long blindly is not a good strategy, but considering oversold conditions will be looking to buy a pullback :

Also after yesterday’s doji, oversold conditions remained, now only  several percentage points less oversold now, so game plan is still the same, looking for bounce on a drop, preferably into the 50ema - 200dma pocket:

Daily S2 is also right there at 891.25, and ambush play of last 2 months right below:

There are quiet a few levels lining up in that area. Will be watching internals and $TICK closely and trying to get daytrade entry and ride it up as far as possible. Of course there are no guarantees , but odds of these set ups favor a bounce, to review we got:

• Extreme Put / call
• Oversold conditions
• 200dma
• 50ema
• Daily S2
• 2 month ambush

all in that area.

On the way up,  looking at two fib confluence levels (this is chart form last night using 899.25 low, so it will naturally be different if we make a new low)  will update on the blog/twitter once/if we get up there

Will be taking stabs at 921/926 level and trying to ride it down for what its worth, with reasonable stop of course.

There is quiet a bit of market moving data in the morning:

8:30AM EST: US Initial Claims

10:00AM EST: Leading Indicators

10:00 AM EST: Philadelphia Fed

=======================================

That’s about it as far as ES plan is concerned. Reading this blog is almost a fulltime job, since I just noticed I made 8 posts sine last e-mail update was sent out ( sign up for email updates on the right ;) )

Also, I have added a live chat client to all pages of the site, so feel free to sign in and chat it up, also members of EA/DH’s if you know someone who is looking for a free place to chat, from old crew feel free to spread the word, taht would be appreciated.

Good luck and have a great trading day (be careful, OPEX Thursday)

Vlad
Twitter @esecfutures
any help by you spreading the word via twitter or any other way greatly appreciated :)

Hey Traders,

playing around with few things for the site, and have added a jabbify chat client which can be accessed from any page on the site in the bottom right corner.

You can also pop it out in a window by clicking the arrow in the upper right corner of the client.

Vlad

$GBPUSD / $BP_F heading back for 1.62 support http://twitpic.com/7p4cc, target of wedge 1.58, but thinking a bounce first $$

Hey Traders, dont always have to post on here and twitter, so sometimes will just copy and paste the twits here, follow me @esecfutures to get those updates real time

Update 5:26am EST:
Bounced for 60pips.. good enough, leaving it alone for now… going back to bread and butter, euro, gold and es, … until CAD econ data of course -P

Update: 5:38am EST:
Bounce 2 also 50+ pips… took exactly 0.00 out of that one :)

Update 6:12 am est:
2nd bounce went over 100+ pips… “COULDA SHOULDA WOULDA”

Hey Traders,

just started this new category “Twits” as previously mentioned in many posts, when I trade overnight, I only post overnight levels on twitter @esecfutures. So created this category and will paste those twits in here sometimes, these will be real quick updates.

Cheers

Vlad