3:30 AM EST: Swiss National Bank rate decision

4:30am EST: UK Retail Sales

7:00AM EST: Canada CPI

8:30AM EST: US Initial Claims

10:00AM EST: Leading Indicators

10:00 AM EST: Piladelphia Fed

Hey Traders,

Euro is trading back above 20, 50 and 200ema now with 20 crossing back above 50:

What this could be:

• Rising wedge that just got backtested (target 1.41)
• Bear flag (Target 1.32s)
• Also in ambush (50-61%) retracement zone from 6/11 highs. (Target 1.363s)

Top of the channel 1.34 area should be key in deciding further direction. Or retracement to the bottom of the channel and fib from the lows in 1.385

What Dollar does at this retracement area trendline should be key in determining further direction for euro as well as gold and equities

Just thinking “out loud”

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Not many key technical developments on gold today, long term trendline held for the 3rd time on the daily charts:

and is expected to act as further support (the more support is tested the more likely it is to break down), if it doesnt hold and this weeks lows are broken would expected a trip to 915, with critical 200dma below at 900.

On the upside still expecting top of the channel on hourly chart and 200ema to act as resistance:

If gold breaks that level will  expect another 15 points of upside to 960.

As always dollar chart will be key in  further developments for gold and euro.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Euro has been trading in small range for the past two days and has either
a) broken out of the wedge that would target retest of 1.417 highs
B) is trading in a channel / possible bear flag

at any rate will be watching current retracement zone starting 1.395 closesly with 200ema hourly right below it :

As for support will be looking at the bottom of the channel and also 50% retracement zone at ~1.385

Since have been trading in the tight range past few days, bigger picture did not change much, check June 16 update for daily charts and levels

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

quick summary, firstly the sell off into the 200dma x 50ema pocket worked out perfectly (see June 16 update)

Tomorrow 200 dma and 50ema will get another 3-4 points closed and will cross either Friday or early next wee. Will be expecting test of that area to act as support, with bottom of May range below.

If the bounce resumes higher will expect resistance at the trendline and then two fib levels at 921 and 926 (chart a few hours old, but levels still the same)

Tomorrow is opex Thursday with plenty of econ data coming our way, should be fun.

Thats about it for ES

Cheers

Vlad

update 3:36pm EST:
ES back to vwap and 50% retracement, reaction here will be key for further direction, at any rate, careful during last half hour

will be back with daily updates later on today.

Have a great rest of the day

Vlad

=========================

update 2:48pm Est:
Dollar index testing ambush zone from the lows, reaction in that area will be key for behavior of commods, indices and fx.
If 914 holds, 906.75 is VWAP and 50% retracement from the lows

update 2:18pm EST:
Euro at ambush and 200ema described in yesterdays update

update 1:44pm EST:
Now trying to get part 2 of the plan to work, thats of course considering ES resumes the move lower, and this is not the biggest retracement we get:

After ES clears this trendline (red arrow), will be looking for 921 fib confluence / ambush and then 926 fib concluence/ambush/backtest of channel to act as resistance.

================================

Hey Traders,

Just the first update today as there was nothing to update on so far, everything is working out according to plan from daily updates last night, ES pushed down into extreme oversold conditions in 50ema -200dma pocket and bounced for 11+ pts as of now:

gold has found resistance at the long term trendline once again and bounced for $10+

and euro continues to bounce along two ambushes.

Hope you having a good trading day

Vlad