3:30 AM EST: Swiss National Bank rate decision
4:30am EST: UK Retail Sales
7:00AM EST: Canada CPI
8:30AM EST: US Initial Claims
10:00AM EST: Leading Indicators
10:00 AM EST: Piladelphia Fed
ES Futures and Euro Currency Futures Analysis
Euro is trading back above 20, 50 and 200ema now with 20 crossing back above 50:
Top of the channel 1.34 area should be key in deciding further direction. Or retracement to the bottom of the channel and fib from the lows in 1.385
What Dollar does at this retracement area trendline should be key in determining further direction for euro as well as gold and equities
Just thinking “out loud”
Not many key technical developments on gold today, long term trendline held for the 3rd time on the daily charts:
and is expected to act as further support (the more support is tested the more likely it is to break down), if it doesnt hold and this weeks lows are broken would expected a trip to 915, with critical 200dma below at 900.
As always dollar chart will be key in further developments for gold and euro.
Euro has been trading in small range for the past two days and has either
a) broken out of the wedge that would target retest of 1.417 highs
B) is trading in a channel / possible bear flag
at any rate will be watching current retracement zone starting 1.395 closesly with 200ema hourly right below it :
Since have been trading in the tight range past few days, bigger picture did not change much, check June 16 update for daily charts and levels
quick summary, firstly the sell off into the 200dma x 50ema pocket worked out perfectly (see June 16 update)
If the bounce resumes higher will expect resistance at the trendline and then two fib levels at 921 and 926 (chart a few hours old, but levels still the same)
Tomorrow is opex Thursday with plenty of econ data coming our way, should be fun.
Thats about it for ES
update 3:36pm EST:
ES back to vwap and 50% retracement, reaction here will be key for further direction, at any rate, careful during last half hour
will be back with daily updates later on today.
Have a great rest of the day
update 2:48pm Est:
Dollar index testing ambush zone from the lows, reaction in that area will be key for behavior of commods, indices and fx.
If 914 holds, 906.75 is VWAP and 50% retracement from the lows
update 2:18pm EST:
Euro at ambush and 200ema described in yesterdays update
update 1:44pm EST:
Now trying to get part 2 of the plan to work, thats of course considering ES resumes the move lower, and this is not the biggest retracement we get:
After ES clears this trendline (red arrow), will be looking for 921 fib confluence / ambush and then 926 fib concluence/ambush/backtest of channel to act as resistance.
Just the first update today as there was nothing to update on so far, everything is working out according to plan from daily updates last night, ES pushed down into extreme oversold conditions in 50ema -200dma pocket and bounced for 11+ pts as of now:
gold has found resistance at the long term trendline once again and bounced for $10+
and euro continues to bounce along two ambushes.
Hope you having a good trading day