Hey Traders,

few market moving events on Thursday June 4th:
7:00am EST - Bank of England Rate Decision
7:45am EST - European Central Bank Rate Decision
8:30 am EST -Initial Claims

12:45pm EST - Bernanke Gives Welcome Remarks at Fed Conference in Washington
1:00pm EST - Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Down day for the ES today, which had all the bears celebrating the new bear market leg and start or retrace to SP 300 during FAZ parties. Price does not suggest that just yet:

ES failed to fill Monday’s gap and backtest the 200dma, which would have actually been constructive for the bulls. Now there is a gap from today which would be closed at 939.25, gap on the downside which would be closed at 921.75 and then gap from November 2008 at 954.25.

Heiken Ashi trend is still pointing up. Short term momentum has reset from very overbought conditions and is now neutral.

Will be watching reaction at 935s on the way up as it is previous s/r level and also ambush zone from the highs, break above the zone would mean a likely trip to retest the rally highs.

On the downside will be watching 50-61% retracement from 922.50 low for immediate direction clues.

Below 921.75 gap fill level with backtest of 200dma and retracement of the last week’s run up along within previous s/r level ligning up in 917s

Would have to see this level breaking down to start building a bearish case, until then the bias is neutral to bullish. Bears will have to really get it together to get it below 200dma, some retracement levels, and even then there are key levels every several points down.

Will be watching levels from this update for further direction clues and as always will udpate in Intraday analysis posts and @esecfutures twitter account

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

all currencies took huge hits against the dollar today, not much damage done in the bigger picture of things:

Gold has had a huge run up without any significant retracement so some is expected, it is also approaching a key trendline on the daily which should determine if Euro will continue its run or not.

Shorter term will be watching following levels for support:

With first support level being retracement and previous S/R level in 1.406 area, with bottom of the channel and a bigger retracement below.

On the upside will be watching this ambush zone, for possible formation of head and shoulders top that should take the euro to the bottom of the channel on previous chart on a measured move:

If that level does not hold, euro is likely to retest the highs and head up to head the big trendline on the daily charts.

Will be watching reaction at those euro currency levels for further direction clues

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

On dollar pullback gold has retraced some from the highs and found support at previous s/r level, trendline and ambush zone

If this level does not hold would expect possible deeper pullback to high 940/high 930s.

Some key econ data, ECB and BOE meetings tomorrow should move the gold market. In the bigger picture gold had almost complete head and shoulders pattern with a target in 1330s.

Neckline of this particular formation at 1006-1011 line. The success of this pattern high depends on weather the US dollar holds above key 77.7 level.

That’s about all for the precious metal for tonight

Cheers

Vlad

Update Cash Close:

Failed to fill the gap, closed above 200dma for 3rd straight day, 50% retracement from rally highs 935.75

Very busy night and day trading, blogging, tweeting and trying to do things “normal” people do.
Some key developments in all markets today, will post daily summaries later on in the evening after taking a closer look at charts top- down, not too sure if bears are right about gloating and having faz parties today celebrating resumption of bear market when all ES did was retraces 27 points of 280 pt run and not even to 50% line form last week’s low, and is still holding strongly above 200dma.
If I trade overnight will be posting levels I watch for currencies, gold and ES futures  on Twitter @esecfutures

Very busy day again tomorrow with ECB , Bank of England and US econ data

have a great rest of the day
Cheers
Vlad

========================

Update 3:27pm EST:
Just watching at this point for gap fill 921.75 and close in respect to 200dma critical for longer term picture, today 200dma is at 919.75.

Update 2:55pm EST;
New high $tick of the day near lows, possibly trend change, keeping an eye on 930.25 vwap with 936 being ambush from overall rally highs

Update 2:40pm EST:
ES is hanging out around the low. All currencies and commodities are making new lows as dollar continues to show strength. Last hour coming up, should be careful per usual

Bulls might as well fill the gap while down here and maybe backtest 200dma in order to be able to further build on this rally. Bears want to close this back below 200dma.

Update 1:48pm EST:
ES continues to drop, now looking at gap fill 921.75 , backtest of 200dma 919.75, with big ambush support at 917.75. Watching for tick reaction at those levels for possible trend change clues. Would need a low tick at those key levels and then new high $TICK of the day near the lows for possible trend change direction.

Gold is still battling with level from last gold update.
Euro at session lows and getting closer to possible long entry mentioned in last euro update of this post.

Update 12:57pm EST:
ES approaching fib confluence area starting 926.5

If it doesn’t hold expecting gap fill, 921.75 , retest of 200dma 919.75 with support at ambush from the bottom of the range at 917.75 below.
Update 12:51pm EST:
Euro is already down big on the day, next support level I see is in 1.4065 ambush with previous s/r level right below at 1.405

Update 12:15pm EST:
Gold dropped right to that trendline and S2, if it doesn’t hold gold could be in for much more downside

Update 11:53am EST:
Gold below S1 now, expecting some support at 965 trendline/ previous resistance level and daily S2 area

Update 10:53am EST:
ES bounced a tick above previous rally highs of 927.75 which now acted as support and ticks are getting more bullish, still no $TICK reading above 800 though.
Considering 928 low holds will be watching 938s overhead resistance for further direction , (938.25 is also  weekly R1 level)

Update 10:05am EST:
Econ Data a non even, still crude inventories to go at 1030am EST
We have unfilled gap at 921.5 and 200dma at 919.75 that have still to be filled/backtested
Going to keep watching reactions and $TICK clues at previously mentioned ambushes for further direction clues

Update 9:55am EST:
ES is getting sold into hard, will wait for all the 10 am data whipsaw to clear and some price action develop

Update 9:45am EST:
in case you guys were too laze to read the support levels from June 2 Daily Summary:

- 938.75 fib confluence, which was front run by 2 ticks and acted as support during trading hours today
- 932.75 ambush from 5/31 overnight lows
- 926.26 ambush from the start of the run last week on Friday which is also in the area of previous rally highs of 927.75
- Below 917.63 ambush from the bottom of May’s trading range and also backtest of 200dma

Also 200dma is around 919.75 today

=======================

Good Morning Traders,

Busy overnight session with Australia posting higher than expected GDP reading and many currencies and gold rallying to new highs.

There is still some key market moving data to go:
5:00 am EST - Euro Zone GDP
8:15 am EST - ADP Employment Change
10:00 am EST - Factory Orders
10:00 am EST - ISM Services
10:30 am EST - Crude Inventories

Also, if you have not had a change to yet, here are the latest analysis posts, since market close yesterday:

• Overnight ES, Euro and Gold Analysis
• Keep Breaking Rules? Take Control of Your Trading!
• June 2 Daily Market Summary
• Euro and Aussie Pre-GDP Data Analysis

Have a great trading day and be sure to control you trading ;)

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Gold continues to rip on dollar weakness and is now at new highs for 2009.

Gold found resistance just below daily R1 level of 992.4, if it breaks above next resistance is expected at daily R2 level of 999.5 which is right below huge psychological level of 1000.

Those are just daytrading levels, on the bigger picture there is perfect looking inverse head and shoulders pattern that has been forming for about 14 month, target of 1330.

Neckline of this particular formation is in 1006-1009 area and is also expected to act as intraday resistance level.

If dollar index fails to hold December low and 61% retracement from decade low, gold break out is very very likely

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

during overnight sessions I will not be rarely doing overnight analysis posts, but if I am trading will be posting updates and levels as I see them through my twitter account:

ESECFutures Twitter Account @esecfutures

Also, if you are new to twitter, get Tweetdeck as it will greatly help you to sort through all the tweets and organize streams.

I also post notifications about new posts and also some intraday levels and technical developments which I dont have time to record in Intaraday Analysis through the same Twitter acount.

If you do choose to sleep at night , simply continue checking the blog when it is convenient for you

Cheers

Vlad