Update Cash Close:
Huge Day technically, finally out of the range/ box of chop that we were in all of May.
Have a great rest of the day and check back later for Daily market updates
Vlad
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Update 3:32pm EST:
HA! well that was quiet a tease, came within few ticks of daily 50% and VWAP and bounced.
Leaving this market alone until overnight action.
Update 3:18pm EST:
Trading hour ambush at 938.5 , VWAP 938.75
Update 3:06pm EST:
Last hour madness is upon us, watching the support levels from previous update, after getting new low tick of the day near the highs. ALso remember watching for close in relation to January high. Be careful during last hour.
Also, feel free to follow on twitter, as I post many updates there as far as new posts and technical developments: http://twitter.com/esecfutures
Update 2:32pm EST:
Considering 947.25 high holds, will be watching following possible support levels
Trading hours ambush 938.5
Ambush from overnight lows 932
Ambush from the low prior to take off on Friday 925.5
Update 2:29pm EST:
While this tape is running away without me and calling it a day on scalping euro and gold, just did a post on upside targets of current 3 formations in play on ES http://esecfutures.com/2009/06/01/es-sp500-emini-upside-targets/
Update 2:12pm EST:
ES continues to grind higher, leaving it alone for now, probably for the rest of the day, watching the close above 939.5 January high and 200dma, which is pretty much a given the way this is going.
Update 1:50pm EST:
This strong breadth is still not presenting any buyable pullbacks. 2 hours to go in the trading day, hard to jump in front of this, and a little late to buy.
All new highs continue to be made on lower ticks:
Update 1pm EST:
Got some extreme low $tick’s of the day with lowest sub -800, possible trend change
Considering 944.5 high holds, will be watching
Trading hours ambush 937
Ambush from overnight lows 930.5
Ambush from the low prior to take off on Friday 924
Update Noon:
Euro is currently testing ambush zone from the highs at 1.4196 for the second time today. Earlier it found support at 1.4159 ambush, watching those two ambushes for further direction. This also looks like a possible bull flag.
On ES, Besides the big break out on the daily tape since 10 am remains brutal, just put in a new high, again without new high $Tick confirmation.
If 943.75 high holds, will be watching following ambushes:
Trading hours ambush 936.75
Ambush from overnight lows 930.25
Ambush from the low prior to take off on Friday 923.75
Update 11:14am EST:
If 943 high holds:
Trading hours ambush 936.25
Ambush from overnight lows 929.75
Ambush from the low prior to take off on Friday 923.25
If the trading hours ambush is broken will also be looking at possible short entries from the daily high.
Update 11:05 am EST:
In case you haven’t witnessed enough insane events in the markets during the past 2 years.. here is another one….
GM STOCK IS UP 27%!!!!!
Update 10:40am EST:
Have to be careful not to chase this up here. Will be waiting for a pullback to enter. This should be an amazing short later on in the summer.
Update 10:24am EST:
Today’s close will be very key, watching close above/below January Highs and 200DMA(which seems almost a certainty now, but with this market you never know)
With break above the box of chop of May, the target of this Box Play is 978.75
Of course it is rarely a straight line and a number of other possibilities, but this set up alone suggests that target.
Update 10:16am EST:
Now trading above Weekly R1 and January highs, seeing some $TICK divergence though as new ES emini highs are made on lower and lower $TICK readings
Update 9:54am EST:
Still watching Weekly R1 938.25 and January Highs 939.5 for resistance
Current high $TICK of the day 1189
Update 9:31am EST:
ES 200dma opens at 923.31.
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Good Morning Traders,
always interesting to wake up to ES, EC and GC all being at multi-months highs. Seems like ES is finally above the box / rally high of 927.75 and 200dma which should be around 923 today (will update once the market opens), will be watching closely for the close above 927.75 as a clue that market is ready to continue higher.
Expected resistance level is Weekly R1 938.25 and January Highs of 939.5 zone.
Expected support levels (if 937 overnight high holds) are 926.75 ambush zone from overnight lows to highs and then 920.25 as ambush from Friday’s low.
Will update on expected support/resistance levels as more price action develops after the market open. Will also be waiting for bigger set ups to take shots at entries in ES emini futures as getting cute with this tape would have been brutal over the past month or so.
Hope everyone has a great month
Vlad
p.s.
Karl Denninger from Market Ticker last Friday posted two possible reasons for that 20 pt move into the close:
- “Someone” was forcibly liquidated out of a short position - a fairly big one. 1,000 S&P “big” contracts has a maintenance margin requirement of $22,500,000 - that’s not a small position, and each point, as noted, has a $250,000 move associated with it. Who was it and why?
- “Someone” who didn’t give a damn if they lost a sizable amount of money intentionally wanted to shove the cash market up through the 200DMA, a critical technical level. They were 1 minute late; they succeeded in doing so in the futures, but not the cash!
Seems like something else might have been behind it considering this morning price