Zero Hedge: Denis Lets Zero Have it

First, I have respect for Dennis - he lays out his beliefs (regardless if these beliefs are based on completely flawed foundations or not) and defends them, on prime time TV, in a “financial news” medium whose very existence every viewer realizes is contingent on not only the continued viability of massively bad debt-laden GE (due to its inextricable ties with GE Capital, which lent out more toxic second liens than virtually any other entity), but by implication, the well-being of the overall economy, as well as the continued financial support by PIMCO and other financial company sponsors who have explicit and implicit ties with the current administration, and who profit exclusively from a rising market. In retrospect, one can see where Dennis’ viewers may get confused by the blurry line between a hopelessly severe conflict of interest and honest personal opinion……………………………..

Denninger (Market Ticker): To Dennis Kneale: You’re An Idiot

Since Dennis saw fit this evening on CNBC to “go after” bloggers who in turn had gone after him, yet he omitted The Market Ticker, I’ll go ahead and put a full-on dredge out behind my stern and slow to 3kts.

And Dennis, if you would like me on your show, I’ll be happy to appear.  Phone is fine.  And I’m not anonymous, nor do I want to be - CNBC already has has my full bio, my full name, and my CNBC-standard disclosure document back with a digital signature affixed.  You can also “whois” this domain and get my full name and address.  Good enough?  Several employees of NBC Universal are on my forum and a CNBC producer has my direct email address - just ask around and I’m sure you can obtain it, and if you do email me I’ll be happy to call you at your convenience………..

Hey Traders,

Fib confluence and previous 3 time high should be key support level to watch for short term trend clues:

Hey Traders,

after very exciting day yesterday of tape chopping around in 2 pt range for most of the day on lightest volume since January 2nd, daily picture has not changed much, except for short term momentum indicator - 5day RSI is at overbought levels not seen since 5/6 and 4/3:

Note that today is also the last day of the month, quarter and half year.

If this market gets a pop today , be it on end of quarter window dressing anything, it would statistically present a decent shorting opportunity, so will be looking for shorts on any push higher.

ES is still in key retracement zone form the highs, with 926.5 being 61% line, on break above there are no clear resistance levels all the way to 938.5 unfilled gap, immediate push to that level would set up a very good probability short. Will have to see how market internals look shall market get up there, will keep you posted via twitter, blog updates and or chat.

For support will be watching fib confluence zones and retracements from 911.5 and 907.25 lows.

There are also some market moving news releases in the morning, so be careful during those time:

Have a great trading day

Vlad
@esecfutures

Hey Traders,

daily euro picture remains the same, with only spike high of 1.4166 as resistance level on the way to retets of highs, as far as resistance levels I see:

The same channels form last week on hourly charts are still working, will be watching retracement zone and backtest of one channel for intermediate term difrection:

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders

Not much has changed for gold since last daily updates, except momentum has reset to completely neutral, so move in either direction is likely, will be watching these key levels for gold:

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Fx Traders,

come news releases to keep an eye on:
All times GMT for EST subtract 4 hours

Cheers

Vlad

Twitter / Vlad: $ES_F 926.5 61% line from ….

Hey Traders,

few social media notes:

• Follow me Twitter @esecfutures
  That is where you can get my updates the quickest (especially if using TweetDeck). During overnight session, when I trade, I post updates there and no longer do Intranight analysis posts. If you check the history, tonight alone had some good calls in identifying key market levels for euro and ES!
• ESEC Chat
  Had over 50 traders chatting during market hours last week, during first week of chats existence
  
  and over 20 nocturnal lunatics at night time trading everything and anything that moves. If you haven’t had a chance to yet, stop by and check it out.
  You can find it in the bottom right corner of every page of esecfutures.com, takes few seconds to sign in.
• Google Friend Connect
  This weekend added a Google Friend Connect gizmo to the right sidebar of the site, you can join with one click, will try some cool things with that as more people join

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

I had 2 experiences last week which could be described as two evils of trading discipline:

• Breaking rules and being rewarded for it
• Following rules and being “punished” for it

Both of these can be very harmful, especially to new traders in becoming consistently profitable and disciplined traders.

—————

Breaking rules and being rewarded for it

While in a euro trade, instead of stopping out at a planned 20 pip stop when trade went against me, I moved my stop and let the position go 40 pips against me, where not only did I risk double the amount of the original plan for that trade, I added another same size position, resulting in break of second rule: adding to a losing position.

When trade got back just about break even within about an hour I sold it, breaking the third rule of letting stops take me out of position, instead of taking profit at particular targets, thus trying to produce runners.

Ultimately I executed a trade with unlimited risk and no profit potential during which I broke three rules.

When looking at the end of day summary, I was up on 10 of 12 trades for the day with  a profit factor of 120! (dollars made/dollars lost)

Seeing such performance might seem like a great day, but it is “fool’s gold” and being rewarded for bad habits can and probably will be destructive for traders performance if one doesn’t realize it fast enough

Following Rules and Being “Punished” for it

Another trade took place on Friday afternoon, I entered it based on one of my setups and without getting stopped out closed the position for a loss, since per my trading rules I do not hold any positions over the weekend, especially in such economic news sensitives crazy instrument as Gold futures. Within minutes of futures open tonight, Sunday night, gold plunged over $6 reaching my ultimate target of 200ema hourly and S1 pocket.

Following my rules and closing out position before the weekend, without letting either stop or target being hit ulatimately made a $1500 difference on this trade, but I was disciplined and followed me rules perfectly.

———————–

Being rewarded for bad trading and being “punished”  for good trading, can really create wrong psychological associations with particular trader behavior and might lead to very destructive tendencies especially for newer traders.

While first scenario of terrible discipline yielded amazing results for that overall day and second trade of following rules perfectly resulted in a loss,  trader has be able to step back and review all the trades and realize that regardless of trade performance, in this particular case the first trade was a bad trade and second was a good trade.

Hope this helps

Vlad

Twitter / Vlad: $ES_F within a point of Fr ….

$EURUSD 61% line from thursday’s low lines up with 200ema hourly and previous s/r level http://twitpic.com/8q4t8