Hey Traders,

some nasty tape last two days, with ES closing at key area. ES closed right at ambush from 3 week low, with 61% line of that particular retracement also containing a support/resistance band that has been respected over the past week.

Break below would mean a likely trip to the bottom of expected range:

Bottom of expected range being 872 previous triple top with 866 fib confluence of 6 week 50% retracement and 23.6% retracement of the whole rally, with 50ema catching up to that level.
Top of the range being 200dma which is now below January highs and is catching up to the recent rally highs.

Will be watching current 899.5 ambush for further direction , along with 50% retracement from 923.5 high on the upside shall we get a bounce in this area.

More chop in this range is expected with break out/down likely resulting in 40-60 more points. Also, worth noting is that despite 50pt move form low - high in last 3 days, heikin ashi trends remains red suggesting further downside.

Cheers

Vlad

I am hearing from many people whom I respect deeply - - some of them well-know bloggers - - that this market is driving them nuts and they are tempted to just walk away for the summer. I can understand the sentiment.

If you’re frustrated…………if you’re being driven crazy by this market…………at least rest assured you are not alone.

- Tim Knight

If you are being driven crazy by this market….. TRADE the  EURO

- Vlad

Dear Trader,

The old adage says, “you are what you eat,” and today we’re offering you a heaping portion of brain food.

At long last, the mainstream media is beginning to question buy-and-hold investing – it’s a myth that EWI’s original Independent Investor eBook debunked years ago. Even the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” has come under fire from the Oracle of Omaha himself – the Independent Investor long ago exposed EMH for the fantasy it is.
Now that the mainstream has finally caught up to these myths, the Independent Investor eBook can once again put you ahead of the herd; you can understand truths today that the mainstream will catch up to someday in the future.

You’ll get the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International’s 30-year history, PLUS 6 brand-new chapters (43 new pages) of specific analysis, forecasts and commentary that will help you think independently in today’s tumultuous market.
Tens of thousands read the first Independent Investor, but even many of them will miss out on the important new advice the new, greatly expanded eBook imparts. Put yourself ahead of the herd for years to come – get a copy of the new 118-page Independent Investor eBook today.

Download the New Independent Investor eBook now. It’s FREE.

Hey Traders,

Euro had a very significant close today, closing above March high and a trendline.

Euro found resistance few ticks below the 61% retracement line, which is key line of defense for the Euro bears, break and close above would likely result in much more upside. Rising 50 ema with also cross 200dma in about 5-7 days shall euro remain above 200dma.

Dollar also had significant technical break down closing below 82. Will be watching 81.62 close on the weekly chart, as it is weekly 50ema, and close below would further help build bearish case for the dollar, bullish case for the euro, as dollar is already below 50ema and 200dma with 50 about to cross under 2o0.

Worth noting is that dollar index is only 1.01 above 50% retracement from a decade low and is most oversold since May. The direction of the dollar / euro will be key in determining further direction in the markets.

Short term will be watching the following levels for support on the Euro

Firstly watching 1.37 level as it is previous resistance level and 1 day 50% retracement, below tehre watching backtest of neckline of inverted head and shoulders and 1.3623 as 50% line of the weekly ambush zone.

Will be watching euro closely as it is at very important levels currently

Cheers

Vlad

Many traders look at the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Canadian dollar (CAD) as commodity plays. Both countries are rich in natural resources and that seems to be a key element to the recent moves in both of these currencies.

Today we are going to look at the technical aspect of the Australian dollar. This market not only charts very well, but it responds very well to technical signals. In this short video, I will explain in detail my reasoning for wanting to be in this market. I will give you some specific Aussie dollar objectives and also some places to protect capital.

Update Cash Close:
Up 20 down 20, dollar breaks key support, euro closes above key level. Check back later for daily updates. Will try to make sense of this nutty tape.

Have a good rest of the day

Update 3:45 pm EST:
With 15 minutes to go ES finally tags 3 day 50% retracement. This should be key ambush area in deciding further direction.

Update 2:10pm EST:
Markets still digesting FOMC, gold and euro look ready to rip out. Still watching 915.25 ambush on ES on the upside and 899.5 on the downside.

Update 1:38pm EST:
Just got new high $TICK of the day, watching 915.25 ambush for further direction

FOMC MINUTES AT 2:00PM EST! It would probably be wise to stay out at this point in time

Update 12:40pm EST:
ES continues to make new lows, will be watching for a bounce to look for short entry at ambush from 923.5 high.

Update 12:18pm EST:
on the downside there is no clear ES support level until big 899.5 ambush.
On the euro will be watching close above/below 1.3736 level closely
So far considering the recent tape, first best set up is setting up a chair on your backyard and grabbing a Corona and letting a market pick a direction, Second best being taking a stab at ambush short form the highs on ES, currently 916.75 , doesn’t look like there are any clear trades setting up on the euro or gold at the moment either.

Update 12:09pm EST:
ES came within a tick of violating the ambush zone. Will be watching retracement from today’s highs (923.5), currently ambush zone begins at 917. Needless to say, this tape is nuts, unanswered 20 up and 14 down.

Update 11:49am EST:
ES ambush from overnight lows at 913
Gold Broke through previous channel expected resistance and is now within big ambush zone on the daily chart
Euro is above March high and came within 30 pips of big 61% retracement area

===================

Good Morning Traders,

another shake out / bear trap overnight, with ES dropping on BAC news, only to rally 12 points from the lows into the positive territory.

ES found support in the 906.75-908 ambush zone on the overnight pullback, that will be key area to watch for further direction on the way down. Resistance wise there really aren’t any key levels, except yesterday’s highs of 915.75. This also looks like a potential bull flag.

Euro is back to the recent highs, with March highs and previous s/r level not too far away. Break above 1.3736 is likely to mean a quick squeeze to 1.3832 61% line which will be key line of defense for the bears, break above could turn into a massive short squeeze.

Gold is also rallying overnight, and it look like it is heading for a backtest of previous channel support

With big 50% retracement from yearly highs right right around there at  937.7, with trip to the top of the channel on the daily chart also very likely, especially if euro breaks out.

All of the markets, ES especially are in areas with significant resistance and support levels rather far away, so more chop is expected, as always will keep updated on key levels as price action develops.

Good luck and good trading

Vlad