Hey Traders,

Rather significant day in the markets today with bears attempting to do some serious technical damage to these markets, but failing at the uptrend line in place for the past 2 months, which also happened to be a fib confluence area of some major retracements:

After bouncing, ES found some short term resistance at 1 day 50% line, eventually rallied up to 2 day 50% retracement and downtrend line where it made the high of the day.

Shall the market continue to rally that 895.5 ambush zone on ES will be key in determining further direction, along with critical ambush zone at 904 which marks 50% retracement from the overall rally highs.

On the downside will be watching that uptrend line and fib confluence area which acted as support. Also there is a key fib confluence aera where 23.6% line of the whole rally and 50% line of the last 1.5months meet in 866 area.

Just before that there is a critial level at 872 which is a previous triple top on the daily charts and is expected to act as resistance.

Below 872 and 866 level would expect further pull back to 50ema currenlty at 850 and likely 38% retracement of the whole rally at 826, which is also 100dma.

Another very key development on the daily charts, is that second red Heiken Ashi trend bar has been generated for the first time since this rally began back on March 6th. Heiken Ashi trend change signal is a serious check mark in building a bearish case.

Two good old Friends BPNYA and % of Stocks above 50 moving average are still extremely high , still above January highs with plenty of room for downside, sonsidering they both have previously been as low as single digits.

Guessing and playing the “should, if, would, why” game in this market rarely pay, only price does, so will be watching previously identified key levels for further clues and trading around them.

Cheers

Vlad

Update Cash Close EST, CST, PST:
Another very technical day, reacting to trendline and retracements extremely well.
If you appreciate the info you find here feel free to spread the word to your fellow traders, that would be appreciated.
Also, you can follow ESEC Futures on Twitter for latest updates

Going to enjoy this nice day and will post some daily updates later on in the evening.

Cheers

Vlad

==============================================================

Update 3:31pm EST:
Another nice bounce at resistance area, patience pays once again
887.75 is daily 50% retracement, will be watching that level for further clues. Too late in the day to initiate new positions so just managing current ones.

Update 2:40pm EST:
Just got new high $TICK of the day at first expected resistance from the early morning update with that trendline currently at 897 right above. If that doesn’t hold looking for a trip to 904 ambush. Again, only 80 minutes left, have to be extra cautious

Update 2:21pm EST:
new highs for ES , Gold and Euro. all levels still the same, except euro is a little in no-mans land now. Will have to extra careful in last 1.5 hrs on OPEX week , its not a bad idea to :

Update 2:02pm EST:
ES, EC and GC within 8 ticks of highs of the day (thats the best update i can come up with in tape like this) Yawn

Update 1:21pm EST:
886.5 is ambush from daily lows, will be watching that level for further direction

Update 11:31am EST:
Euro is at 50% line form 2 month high at 1.3621. Watching this area for further clues.
ES emini broke though previous ambush, not looking for levels in previous update to act as resistance

Update 9:35am EST:
ES is testing 50% line from yesterdays highs, mentioned in previous update, above following areas are expected to act as resistance

refer back to daily summary for support levels, watching hourly trendline closely shall it retrace back to it.

Update 8:44 am:
that was quiet a bounce off of trendline on ES, first ambush zone now at 887.

=======================================================

Good Morning Traders,

after some brutal tape yesterday, some interesting developemnts in ES, EC and GC.

Check out most recent daily updates for key levels:

• EC Futures Triple Support Level
• GC Futures Channel
• Daily ES Futures Analysis - May 13

Will keep you posted on new levels as price action develops.

On ES watching break above 887-75 - 889.5 ambush zone for a possible trip to 896.25 ambush or even 904.75 ambush zone from the highs.

Some major econ data this morning as well:

Good Trading

Vlad

Hey Traders,

good probability long entry setting up on the euro, with rising trendline, 200dma and 50% all in the same area. Will be watching 1.3473-1.3485 area closely

Hey Traders,

Gold is testing the bottom of recent channel for the 6th time now.

If the test is successful, expecting to see a trip up to 937 retracement - upper boundary of the channel on the daily chart

break down from the channel on the hourly chart would like result in a trip to retest rising 50ema or the bottom of the channel on daily charts

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

very brutal tape since 1 PM today, thanks OPEX.

What is more significant is that ES is approaching key uptrend line and is hovering right above it in fib consolidation zone:

This is major uptrend line in place for almost 2 months now and breaking it would be a major event as far as building a bearish case is concerned. As you see there is a key fib confluence area at 866 with major support at 872 right below:

872 area is previous 3 time resistance and is expected to act as support on the way down, with another key 866 level right below, if you haven’t had a chance to , check out the OPEX Week post from the weekend, talking about significance of 23.6% retracement in this bear market rally so far.

Few things worth noting:

• ES is currently most oversold since May 13th, while right above key trendline and key support 872 , with pax pain level being at 870. Considering most options are played out by Thurday, trip to that level tomorrow is rather likely. Will be watching for a bounce between here and 872 due to oversold conditions.
• For the fourth time during this rally red trend bar has been generated, confirmation with the second red trend bar tomorrow would further add to the bearish case.
• Below 866 level will be watching rising 50ema currently at 848.5, and currently 100dma which is turning up and is at 38% retracement of the whole rally at 826.42.

Will be watching that trendline and 872 levels closely. Check back tomorrow for intraday updates as price action develops.

Cheers

Vlad