Rather significant day in the markets today with bears attempting to do some serious technical damage to these markets, but failing at the uptrend line in place for the past 2 months, which also happened to be a fib confluence area of some major retracements:
Shall the market continue to rally that 895.5 ambush zone on ES will be key in determining further direction, along with critical ambush zone at 904 which marks 50% retracement from the overall rally highs.
On the downside will be watching that uptrend line and fib confluence area which acted as support. Also there is a key fib confluence aera where 23.6% line of the whole rally and 50% line of the last 1.5months meet in 866 area.
Just before that there is a critial level at 872 which is a previous triple top on the daily charts and is expected to act as resistance.
Below 872 and 866 level would expect further pull back to 50ema currenlty at 850 and likely 38% retracement of the whole rally at 826, which is also 100dma.
Another very key development on the daily charts, is that second red Heiken Ashi trend bar has been generated for the first time since this rally began back on March 6th. Heiken Ashi trend change signal is a serious check mark in building a bearish case.
Two good old Friends BPNYA and % of Stocks above 50 moving average are still extremely high , still above January highs with plenty of room for downside, sonsidering they both have previously been as low as single digits.
Guessing and playing the “should, if, would, why” game in this market rarely pay, only price does, so will be watching previously identified key levels for further clues and trading around them.