Hey Traders,

Today Euro managed to produce second green heikin ashi trend candle suggesting that new up trend could be starting on the euro:

Last time that particular trend change signaled Euro had a very nice up move of almost 1000 pips. Not suggesting that kind of move is on the way, but that is a serious warning of trend change. Due to that particular trend change I will have to retire the previous channel and introduce a new one:

Within this new channel will be watching 1.3173 retracement level for further direction and boundaries as support resistance levels. 200 DMA is also catching up quickly and is now at 1.3582 as of todays close and is expected to be significant resistance level especially if it happens to be at the top of the channel when met.

As always will be watching for smallest technical breakdowns to reasses the trend and path of least resistance, at this moment in time the outlook for the euro is on the bullish side.

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

ES gaped up today but couldn’t hold daily and weekly R1 level at 882.5 and ended up selling off into the close, closing at the lows and producing and engulfing candle on the daily charts, warning of trend change, if this was normal market and candles still had meaning:

On the daily chart Heikin-Ashi trend remains green pointing up, with some key levels to watch on the daily chart:

• Close below 858.25, which would be a 2B reversal pattern (Close below the bar that broke previous high/ resistance)
• Two red trend candles produced suggesting change of trend, which has yet to happen during this rally

While those are things to watch for possible reversals, the trend clearly remains up with bottom of this 4hour channel to be used for possible clues that the trend is breaking down on the intraday charts:

Currently ES is resting right in the middle of the channel with no particular hints of larger term trend change.

Intraday 2500 tick chart loks like there could  be a Head & Shoulders patter developing, tduring the past two days, with target of tht particular formation being 840.5, which if reached would cause some significant technical break downs on all time frames:

Weekly 50% line is at 862.75, right below the neckline of head and shoulders pattern, and 857 level would need to be broken to confirm intermediate term trend change, until then expected range is between 875 and 862 ambush zones.

This Market remains bullish until proven otherwise, and picking tops got bears run over for the past few months, so I will be looking for shorter term technical breakdown to start building bearish case.

Cheers

Vlad

p.s. Buy Signal on Monthly Charts Today

While everyone has been catching tops of this rally for over 100 points now, monthly charts have just produced a buy signal at todays close:

As per this particular Top / Bottom picking technique, after a trend move of 15-20+ candles, the first close above the high of the low bar, in this case close over high of the March bar at 830.5 would produce a buy signal. That is what we had today with a decisive close above 830.5 level on ES.

While some shorter term pullback is expected, monthly chart  is a clue what we might not have seen the top of the bear market rally just yet, here is a quick example of how this strategy helped pick the bottom on the daily charts during the March Plunge

Cheers

Vlad

Update Cash Close EST:
Got some selling off into the close but no significant damage done just yet, check back later today for Daily Market Summary.
Cheers

Update 3:32pm EST:
Watching 875 as Ambush short from trading hours high

Update 3:07 PM EST:
Last hour fun is upon us. daily trading hours low being retested. If failed will be looking for support level at 862.75 from 12:35 update, resistance level on the upside is still expected to be the same, if the low holds.

Update 2:51pm EST:
Last hou coming up, Be careful. Not much has changed in last hour and a half, all remains the same, just wanted to share little excerpt by Doug Kass in Twitter (not putting much weight on it, letting my set ups take care of themselves)

DougKass: rumor around that there is a large sell program at market close, similar to that in europe last nite. not sure.

Update 1:35pm EST:
New low tick at that level did mark short term bottom in the ambush zone. If current low holds looking for reaction at 876.25 ambush short from the highs for further reaction

Update 1:25pm EST: Another extreme new low tick on test of 868.25 ambush zone., if broken looking for a trip to lower ambush from 1235pm update.

Update 1:04pm EST:
New low $Tick of the day on the last low, possible marking short term bottom, still watching 868.25 support on a new low and 877.75 as retracement from the daily highs for further direction.

Update 12:35pm EST:
2 day and 3 day ambushes highlighted

Considering current technical breakdown of daily ambush will be looking to short retracements

Update 12:31pm EST:
ES weakening, 874 is end of the ambush zone, break of which would suggest more weakness to come and next support level at two day 50% retracement at 868.25. At any rate if ES retraces to 50% from the daily highs, it should be a good stab at a short

Update 12:15am EST:
Got a bounce from previously mentioned 24 hr ambush level to a tick, watching for further direction in 876.75-881.25 ambush range

Update 1152am EST:
Sequence of New daily low $ticks, and trading hours 50% broken, warning signs of trend change, 876.75 24hr ambush should give clues for further direction.
Obama is to speak on Chrysler at Noon, be careful

Update 11:35 am EST:
Channel broken, 881.25 trading hours only 50% retracement, break below would mean like retest of 876.75 lows

Update 11:25am EST:
Watching this channel on tick chart for further clues, ES has been happily bouncing along it since the open

Update 11:17 am EST: Trading right up to overnight highs, break out to R2 levels from the very first “Good Morning” Update will have me looking to do some top picking, until then just letting the action develop, messing around with currencies. Euro is approaching 1.3287 ambush short from the overnight highs.

Update 11 am EST:
Nothing much new to see on ES, resorting to scalping currencies, Pound is a real mover today

Update 10:25am EST:
Took 50 minute to produce first negative tape reading, the tape seems strong as shorts scramble to cover from overnight surprise. Still watching for more tape to develop as it feels like it is too late to go long here and too wrong to go short. Waiting for a bigger move to take action

Watching 1.3173 for support and 1.3287 for resistance on the upside for further direction on the Euro

Update 9:22am EST:
Euro has sold off over 160 pip after making a new overnight high and is now approaching 3 day ambush long

———————–

Good Morning Traders,

impressive high of 887 overnight, considering it holds, the two support levels will be 875.5 and 868.25 one and two day ambushes

On the upside Daily and Weekly R1 levels are 882.5 which might get respected during trading hours, besides that the levels previously mentioned in the very bullish scenario

With targets of this bullish scenario lining up with Weekly R2 pivot level at 898.5 and daily R2 of 895.75

Will be letting some tape develop in the first half hour and go from there.

Good Luck and Good Trading

Vlad

Today’s Daily and Weekly R1 levels are at 882.5. Two of last 3 weeks weekly top was within few ticks of weekly R1 level.

Another key level right above R1s is 23.6% retracement of the whole bear market on the futures

Break above key 882.5-883.5 would favor bullish scenario from previous update:

With targets of this bullish scenario lining up with Weekly R2 pivot level at 898.5 and Tomorrow’s daily R2 of 895.75

Will be watchign those levels closely as at the second of typing this ES is testing this exact level

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

As mentioned in Yesterday’s Daily Euro Analysis, Euro remains to look bullish and is once again pushing up against the downtrend line in place for the past month:

The more this trendline is tested, the weaker it becomes, it has already been tested the past few days, break above would make a trip to 200DMA which currently lines up right in 50-61% resistance zone likely:

Another thing worth noting is that second green Heikin Ashi trend candle is being put in today, it is still early, but if today does manage to close second green candle, that would be a clue as to possible trend change on the EC Futures.

Cheers

Vlad

While I  stick by the view in daily ES Futures Analysis update from before, I wouldn’t put it past this market to have another rip higher fueled by all the shorts patiently awaiting to short these levels for a few weeks now (I am short currently also), while looking at 240 minute chart, several things point to 895-900 level:

• Top of the channel
• Backtest of previous wedge support
• Target of an ambush 50% retracement play
• 900

For this to happen in the next few days, we would probably need to get some terrible economic and other news, since that seems to propel this market daily. Here are few candidates:

While everyone feels this market should roll over and die, even most bullish scenarios have to be considered, especially considering end of month window dressing.

Cheers

Vlad

p.s

that was all possible before Cramer came out doing this

We all remember what hapened last time he start slicing bears and what not on his show calling for a bottom, only about 4000 pts more of downsie…

Hey Traders,

Crazy FOMC day as expected, ES SP500 emini broke the recent high of 872 and squeezed higher to a high of 879.25. If you have not had a chance to read it yet, about a month ago I did a post about 23.6% fib’s role in this bear market, and today it was finally tagged:

(Note: SP500 Cash chart considering after year+ ES emini continuous contract seems to a little off during volatile times at rollover )

On the daily chart we see that ES failed to close above previous low on the first attempt and that some long wicks on the candles are developing suggesting the exhaustion of the move:

On the 240 minute chart we got a long shooting star candles during the FOMC period also, suggesting that short term reversal is likely

Even though key 23.6% retracement was tagged earlier, it is hard to declare a new trend starting unless some technical break downs occur and currently the market is in a clear uptrend channel, will be watching for smallest break downs starting on smaller time frames like 2500 tick chart for technical break downs:

On 2500tick 24 hour chart ES still remains in an uptrend with an ordinary tag of 50% line at 850 overnight and a bounce higher, likewise towards the close finding support at daily 50% retracement. Some small technical breakdowns including ambush (50-61% zone) breakdowns, broken trendlines and lower lows and lower highs would have to occur to further build bearish case.

Also, please remember that tomorrow is the last day of the Month. Will be watching for close above 830.5 as the close above the high of the candle that made a low during the move, which would produce a buy signal on the monthly charts.

Hoping for this market to roll over would have been rather painful for the past 2 months, so will have to watch for technical clues in building bearish case.

Cheers

Vlad

Update Cash Close: ES got a decent bounce at Globex ambush at 864.25, now will be watching key level at 872 for close below/above to get clues for further trend.

Update 3:49pm EST: What a sell off .. currently at Globex  Ambush, break below would be bad news for the bears. 10 minutes to go till the close, have have to be xtra careful.

Update 3:20pm EST: Looking like an FOMC fake out at the moment. 23.6% retracement was actually touched on cash, ES numbers seem to be a little off due to contract rollover difference. Will be watching for close above/below 872, as close above would build a strong bullish case, close below will start building a bearish case with a GOTCHA top of the move. Support levels from previous update remain the same, still have to be very careflu in last hour. Good luck

Update 2:50pm EST: New low ticks of the day suggesting posisble reversal. Considering current high holds, 864.25 is 24 hr and 858.75 is 48hr 50% ambush support, have to be very careful in the last hour. As all levels and internals are less significant during last hour especially on wacky FOMC day

Update 2:33pm EST: Squeeze at it’s finest!

Update 2:22pm EST: wowie wow! Gold Down, Euro down, ES Chop! hmm… staying out for now…

Fed calls U.S. economic outlook modestly improved; target rates unchanged

Update 2 pm EST:
15 Minutes until FOMC decision, may stops be with you, will be letting some tape develop before getting in front of this as smaller technical levels will be going out the window

Update 1:27pm EST:
at the top of the 2500tick chart channel pimped for past week or so. Some serious stops getting swept on that move. 883.5 is still expected resistance on the upside. This could be a brutal pump job - stop sweep on any remaining bears before selling off post FOMC decision. Be careful only 30 mins left

Update 1:10 pm EST:
50 Minutes until 2PM FOMC decision, may stops be with you

Update 12:31pm EST:
Euro broke through some key levels on previous push up, 1.3281 looks like a good stab at a long entry with previous resistance at 1.3277 right bellow expected to act as support

Update 12:22pm EST:
Considering this move is so extended will have to look at trading hours ambush also, which is currently at 865, with 24 hour ambush at 860.50 and 2 day ambush long at 855.25. Keep in mind less than two hours until FOMC.

Update 12:15pmEST:
ES came within a tick of rally high, bulls seem totally in control at the moment.

Euro is testing key fib confluence, trendline

Update 10:45 AM est: Trading right up to rally highs, break above would have a target of 883, 23.6% Fib of the whole bear market

Smells like a pre FOMC pump, but if highs are broken and FOMC comes up with a bullish announcement, at least for short term, this market could rally run short term.

Update 10:25am EST:
Approaching key fib confluence resistance/rally high resistance on the on the daily chart

Update 10:10am EST:
$TICK confirmation on recent high current support levels
857.25 Overnight 50% line
852 two day 50% line
(levels will change if 856.25 is breached)

Update 9:46am EST:
New highs, minor resistance levels expected at 865.75, 868 and 872 recent highs. On the downside at Globex and 2 day ambushes. Watching internals for clues and trading small size in this FOMC madness

Update 9:25am EST:
ES Ambush support levels:
856.25 Overnight 50% line
851 two day 50% line

——————————————————————-

Good Morning Traders,

Markets are moving up in the pre market bouncing of ambush retracements overnight perfectly on two separate occasions:

ES Futures have also managed to shrug off a terrible GDP number as a non event, which is nothing new for the recent really:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy contracted violently again in the first quarter of the year as business investment declined at a record rate, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Real gross domestic product fell at a 6.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, nearly matching the 6.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. The two-quarter contraction is the worst in more than 60 years. The big story for the first quarter was in the business sector, where firms halted new investments, and shed workers and inventories at a dizzying pace to bring down production and stockpiles to match the lower demand from U.S. and foreign markets.

In Swine Flu update, first US death took place, and was also shrugged of by the markets.

Current ES resistance on the way up os expected at recent highs as there is no more clear overhead resistance levels remaining, with support levels at retracement levels and bottom of the channel, I will keep you posted intraday.

Euro continues to look bullish and is not approaching key retest of Fib Confluence and downward channel trendline, break above that level would likely indicate a tripe to 200dma which is another 200 pips above that confluence zone.

Beware of 2:15PM EST FOMC announcement that should rock all markets.

Good Luck and Good Trading to all today

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Euro has just broken an ambush on the 240 minute chart:

There was huge rip in the euro after last fed days, so have to consider all possible resistance points, firstly retest of 1.33, which will be lining up with the top of the recent channel as well as Friday’s high. 23.6, 61 and 100% range expansions all point to retest of high from past weeks.

On the daily chart 200dma is also going to be in play shall the bullish run for the euro continue:

Today, April 29th euro is trading back above 50ema with past of least resistance currently to the upside for another 100 pips or so, be careful trading currencies around the FOMC meeting as large moves and crazy whipsaw expected

Cheers

Vlad

Hey Traders,

Was gone for most of the today so a very quick summary today. Overall markets still remain in the zone of chop good for scalping only and best for staying the heck out:

With smaller channel on 2500 tick chart looking something like this:

Today found resistance at a trendline now connecting the highs of last 3 days and also 24 hour ambush long. Current expected range is 850 ambush zone - 860 trendline. With break above meaning like retest of recent highs and possible rally highs and a trip to the top of the channel, and with break of the ambush meaning trip to the bottom of the channel and possibly retest of major 823 support of the bigger 823-873 range in place for several weeks now.

First red trend candle was produced on the daily chart today, so tomorrow will be watching if second red trend candle is generated as it could be a serious warning sign of a trend change (which wouldnt have as much validity as it usually would, considering there is no strong up trend right now, more of a chop zone)

Also worth noting is that 50EMA is now caught up to that key support area, and break below that ambush confluence as well as 50ema would mean a likely trip to at least 38% of the rally towards 795

Please remember tomorrow is a FOMC day so light volume chop is expected prior to announcement with some “interesting” action afterward

Have a great night and good luck trading

Vlad

Update Noon:
Considering there are no particular illnesses flying around the world, going to see Tigers - Yankees at a somewhat public location, be back later tonight for daily updates. Good luck trading this chop.

Afternoon Update:
Euro is currently right up to 50% retracement from Friday’s High, this is key level to watch for further direction in the euro

ES after finding support at the bottom of the channel on the 240 minute chart:

is back into the middle of the channel. That bottom line is line in the sand for me as far as this bull run is concerned.

There is also channel on 2500tick chart that lines up with similar level on the downside and is currently chopping around right in the ambush zone, with break above making another attempt at retest of weekly and rally highs likely, break below, another test of the bottom of the channel

Good Morning Traders,

Overnight ES has found suport at the bottom of the channel on the hourly chart (see 240 min chart in daily summary). Considering overnight low holds, ambushes on the upside are 847.25 and 852. On the downside if the low is broken there is no clear support until 823.

Euro is right at the ambush from yesterday’s afternoon high, watching for reaction at this levels for further direction. If this ambush doesn’t act as resistance there is ambush short from Friday’s high at 1.3129.

Letting some tape develop for further clues in direction.

Good Luck and Good Trading today

Vlad