Update Cash Close: ES got a decent bounce at Globex ambush at 864.25, now will be watching key level at 872 for close below/above to get clues for further trend.
Update 3:49pm EST: What a sell off .. currently at Globex Ambush, break below would be bad news for the bears. 10 minutes to go till the close, have have to be xtra careful.
Update 3:20pm EST: Looking like an FOMC fake out at the moment. 23.6% retracement was actually touched on cash, ES numbers seem to be a little off due to contract rollover difference. Will be watching for close above/below 872, as close above would build a strong bullish case, close below will start building a bearish case with a GOTCHA top of the move. Support levels from previous update remain the same, still have to be very careflu in last hour. Good luck
Update 2:50pm EST: New low ticks of the day suggesting posisble reversal. Considering current high holds, 864.25 is 24 hr and 858.75 is 48hr 50% ambush support, have to be very careful in the last hour. As all levels and internals are less significant during last hour especially on wacky FOMC day
Update 2:33pm EST: Squeeze at it’s finest!
Update 2:22pm EST: wowie wow! Gold Down, Euro down, ES Chop! hmm… staying out for now…
Fed calls U.S. economic outlook modestly improved; target rates unchanged
Update 2 pm EST:
15 Minutes until FOMC decision, may stops be with you, will be letting some tape develop before getting in front of this as smaller technical levels will be going out the window
Update 1:27pm EST:
at the top of the 2500tick chart channel pimped for past week or so. Some serious stops getting swept on that move. 883.5 is still expected resistance on the upside. This could be a brutal pump job - stop sweep on any remaining bears before selling off post FOMC decision. Be careful only 30 mins left
Update 1:10 pm EST:
50 Minutes until 2PM FOMC decision, may stops be with you
Update 12:31pm EST:
Euro broke through some key levels on previous push up, 1.3281 looks like a good stab at a long entry with previous resistance at 1.3277 right bellow expected to act as support
Update 12:22pm EST:
Considering this move is so extended will have to look at trading hours ambush also, which is currently at 865, with 24 hour ambush at 860.50 and 2 day ambush long at 855.25. Keep in mind less than two hours until FOMC.
ES came within a tick of rally high, bulls seem totally in control at the moment.
Euro is testing key fib confluence, trendline
Update 10:45 AM est: Trading right up to rally highs, break above would have a target of 883, 23.6% Fib of the whole bear market
Smells like a pre FOMC pump, but if highs are broken and FOMC comes up with a bullish announcement, at least for short term, this market could rally run short term.
Update 10:25am EST:
Approaching key fib confluence resistance/rally high resistance on the on the daily chart
Update 10:10am EST:
$TICK confirmation on recent high current support levels
857.25 Overnight 50% line
852 two day 50% line
(levels will change if 856.25 is breached)
Update 9:46am EST:
New highs, minor resistance levels expected at 865.75, 868 and 872 recent highs. On the downside at Globex and 2 day ambushes. Watching internals for clues and trading small size in this FOMC madness
Update 9:25am EST:
ES Ambush support levels:
856.25 Overnight 50% line
851 two day 50% line
Good Morning Traders,
Markets are moving up in the pre market bouncing of ambush retracements overnight perfectly on two separate occasions:
ES Futures have also managed to shrug off a terrible GDP number as a non event, which is nothing new for the recent really:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy contracted violently again in the first quarter of the year as business investment declined at a record rate, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Real gross domestic product fell at a 6.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, nearly matching the 6.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. The two-quarter contraction is the worst in more than 60 years. The big story for the first quarter was in the business sector, where firms halted new investments, and shed workers and inventories at a dizzying pace to bring down production and stockpiles to match the lower demand from U.S. and foreign markets.
In Swine Flu update, first US death took place, and was also shrugged of by the markets.
Current ES resistance on the way up os expected at recent highs as there is no more clear overhead resistance levels remaining, with support levels at retracement levels and bottom of the channel, I will keep you posted intraday.
Euro continues to look bullish and is not approaching key retest of Fib Confluence and downward channel trendline, break above that level would likely indicate a tripe to 200dma which is another 200 pips above that confluence zone.
Beware of 2:15PM EST FOMC announcement that should rock all markets.
Good Luck and Good Trading to all today