Hey Traders,

Today traded very technically, regradless of few dirty ambush shakeouts on ES. Not much changed from Today’s Intraday Analysis, all the levels remain the same. Euro has traded very techincally with today’s high and low being squeezed in an ambush consolidation.

Here is a bigger picture look at ES:
We are now in an ambush consolidation short term, with successful test of 803-809 area we have retraced 50% of daily gains in the last hour. Where it gets interesting is that target of the 803 Ambush is right in the area of 38% retracement of the whole rally (see chart below), which is a likely retracement level before resuming higher to final target of 883+.

Euro has been trading very nicely today, here is what we have:

Euro traded right up to ambush confluence zone at 1.3354 (see Euro Rally Targets analysis from last night). View from here on is simple, trading in 1.3230 - 1.3354 range until broken. If break out to the upside, likely target and stiff resistance at 1.3425, is it breaks lower Euro is like to head back to 1.3114.  With failed tests of those extremes resulting in further range expansion.

Congrats on making it through this tough month

Cheers

Ambush Trade is one of the highest probability trades on all time frames in all markets . I talk about ambush trades a lot in my analysis posts, in case you were  wondering what in the world that is, here is a 2 hour webinar from Ambush Trade King himself David Halsey from EminiAddict, he has too a particular trade set up and has made it his by combining it with few other strategies, this is really worth while watching:

<NO LONGER AVAILABLE>

I took a lot from Dave and have modified it to fit my personal style, more on that in “Trading Strategies” section of the blog once I get some time to put it together.

Enjoy

Update 3:45pm EST: Merill and Goldman are simply pounding ES in the SP500 pit. Next Support @791.25 - 50% ambush from yesterday’s low

Update 3:36pm EST: Who could have thought, made it right to the bottom of the channel and tagged the 796.5 level to a tick!

Update 3:15pm EST: ES is pulling back from the ambush zone, be sure to watch the channel, ambush and previous support at 796 on the way down shall we get there:

Update 2:40 PM EST: stopped out of ES short, was a high probability set up and got out B/E , today’s trend remains bullish (obviously since we are at highs). Last hour should bring some fun.  Note that we didnt have a new high $tick on the last ES high, suggesting that new high is likely.
Euro is at daily ambush zone, watch that 1.3287-1.33 level for further direction

Update 2:22 PM EST: ES tagged 803.25 , sold my long and got a limited risk short entry, probably last trade for the day considering end of quarter/last hour magic that could take place. Living to trade another day.

Update: 2:02PM EST: Thanks for the trend for keeping me on the right side of this chop, euro has been very ambush friendly all day today. Key zone for ES starts at 803 as indicated in previous posts. Shall we break above 809, retest of the highs becomes very likely. After London close EUR action has slowed down, so we might be stuck in 1.323 - 1.335 range for the rest of the afternoon.

Update 12:57EST: Short target on the euro of 1.323 reached. Watch for a bounce there, this is key area for determining if we go back to the lows or back to rerest 1.335s

Update Noon EST: good thing to watch - support line of this wedge

Update 11:50am: Super ES chop continues, would like to see 803 or 786 for higher probability entry, trying to avoid making broker too happy in the chop zone (market in blue)

Current Trend suggests we see 803 before we see 786

Update 11:28am EST: Euro has just retraced half of todays down move at 1.3298

Update 11:07: watch for 1.323 support on EC/6E

Update 10:56am: Got a nice bounce on a short ambush from fridays trading hours only close:

Update 10:30am EST: ES is heading for new highs, once again watch for 796.25, 798.5 and major 803 ambush level on the way up
Also, worth noting is daily trend, considering we had a very bad day for the markets yesterday, today’s daily trend suggests rally resuming (target still 883), if we close about 15-20 pts bellow current level, that would produce second consecutive bearish candle, bearish signal

Update 10:25am EST: choppy, dirty ambush action in ES. Euro confluence has been front run by a few ticks, next resistance on the way down~1.3297 with 1.323 being 50% retracement from the low of yesterday’s move

Update 9:35am EST: please note that starting today you should roll over to M contract in GC, as that is now the most liquid contracts, GCM09

Update 9:18am EST , pre-open trend summary:
Rather bullish action overnight in world markets:

Market Trend Summary:
Both ES and EC trends are bullish right note, note how accurate Euro trend changes have been on the hourly/120minute time frame in the past several days.

Good Morning  Traders,

ES Futures are up 9,5 this morning and Euro has worked it’s way all the way up first resistance zone (see Euro Rally Targets)

First ES ambush resistance is expected 3 points above here at 796.25
With next ambush at short at 798.50, and a bigger one at 803 from the high of this rally.

Good Luck trading today, don’t forget its the last day of the quarter, so we could see some interesting action into the close.

One of the most underutilized tools in trading, especially by new traders are Market Internals, here is a link to a very informative 2 hr webinar from Emini Addicts as to how utilize market internals in your trading:

Enjoy

You do have to be crazy to be a trader, especially a consistantly successful one , looks like quad witch, chopfest, Fed magic month is taking a toll on the best of them:
Slope Drama

Evil Drama

Suggested resolution:
Cheers

Good Evening Traders,

there wont be many updates tonight, but just wanted to post this chart to watch for a short term support in 783.25 area, which also happens to be previous resistance and trendline support.

Note that the level would change shall ES make new high overnight

Cheers

Hey Traders,

as pointed out in most recent end of day trend summary, smaller time frame trends were turning up and now all intraday trends up to 120min chart are looking bullish.

Shall the rally continue, here are two very high probability resistances/targets for the Euro (EC) that should be considered by anyone long at those levels:

There is a Fib confluence in 1.3352-54 area (38% of the recent move down & 50% from the recent high/ambush from which the euro broke down). Second confluence area being 1.3411-1.3425 (61% from recent high , 50% of the recent move down, significant previous support)

Cheers

Hey Traders, rather boring day today, unless you were initially short or were playing the channel on the tick chart posted in intraday analysis. A lot of ambushes were dirty and tape was overall choppy.
Here is end of day trend summary:
Euro trend has been bearish all the way since Friday and has found support 20 pips away from 50% retracement of the rally from the lows. 15minute, 5000contract, and 60 minute charts put in at least 2 green bars suggesting at least short term bull trend could be in the making while 120 minute is putting in first green candle.
On ES Hourly and 120 minute trend is still red going back to 825s on Friday (great sell signal), with 100k contract chart producing three consecutive green bars suggesting possible short term retracement.

Here is a bigger picture:
ES has clearly broken down from the recent wedge formation on the Daily’s by gaping down below the support line, same goes with 100k contract chart where it traded right through it overnight. Key levels to watch on the way are 766.5 and major level at 746.50 on the way down. And on the way up 803 is 50% retracement from the highs, if we break above 810 (~61% from the highs) would fully expect to retest the highs.

Pull back was due after such an extended move, and are expecting pullback to at least 770 before resuming higher ultimately reaching 883 ( see Bear Market Magic Fib), while in this wild bearmarket we have to be open to all views, history suggests such scenario.

There are two contradicting outlooks considering bullish outlook on both the dollar and the markets, but charts suggest we could see another short term rally in the Euro regardless of economic conditions:
Euro has reached 50% retracement and put in a doji, which cold be sign of short term trend change. EC also put in first red trend bar which is a warning sign of new starting bearish trend. Pullback before continues move lower is expected over the next several days.

Cheers

Update 3:17 pm EST:
testing the top of daily channel now

Update 1:50pm EST:
New lows, no new low $tick, if you were to play the box, target of this trade is 774 (bottom of lower box)

Update 1:33pm EST:
ES Box Trade anyone?

Update 1:19pm EST:
ES continues to shop around the lows, watch for 1:30pm EST reversal period or other miscellaneous Turbo Tax Timmy magic

Smaller time frames starting to turn up on the euro right above 1.31ambush, something to watch, especially if larger time frames follow, could get quiet a snap back:

Update 12:21pm EST (Failed):

Fiat & Chrysler alliance news just came out, and ES is giving 4th try to reverse the trend, at least short term. Beware shorts

Update 11:51 EST:

at least gold is having fun:

Update 11:33am EST:

catching the falling chain saw game continues for the bulls, looking for new low confirmed by new low $TICK, failed short ambushes and some time frames starting to reverse the trend. Euro is showing some strength while ES making new lows.

Update 11:11am EST:

Obama speaking on Auto plan now, ES is pushing down on respective LRC channels on many time frames, suggesting the move is getting really extended to the downside short term, will be watching for 15s, 100k share etc to start turning green and some short ambushes failing
Also, EC/6E came within 20 pips of previously pimped 1.3095 level and seems to be finding support there art least short term

Update 10:12AM EST:

Looks like ES emini is finding support at 23.6% retracement of the rally from the lows, and testing yet another ambush

Update 9:33AM EST:

ES has clearly gaped down out of the wedge

Good Morning Traders,

ES had a rather eventful overnight session trading as low at 789.5 or down 26.50 on the session and has broken through  an ambush longs at 808.5 and has found support in 796-788 ambush area. Backtest of the rising wedge support would be right in the ambush short area from the highs of the move.

Euro traded down withing 60 pips of 50% trecement of it’s recent rally, anybody holding on to shorts should really watch for that 1.31 level.

Good luck and good trading!

Good Evening Traders,

just posting some things as I see them

2:06AM EST:

ES is now pushing down against 10,000,000 contract LRC channel, suggesting the move is getting overextended to the downside short term, be careful entering new short positions and watch for a bounce in 796 (ambush) 798 (S2) area

1:18AM EST:

Euro continues to roll over, next big support is expected at 1.31 level, if we get there today or tomorrow that would be unanswered 650 pip move with daily’s getting rather oversold, careful holding on to any shorter term short there

1:16AM EST:

61% line of the recent ambush long failed, also looks like trendline could be beraking, next bounce target 61% extension and large ambush long in 796-796.5 area

Good/Scary Read:

How The World Almost Came To An End at 2PM on September 18

On Thursday (Sept 18), at 11am the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn’t be further panic out there.

If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2pm that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it.

We are no better off today than we were 3 months ago because we have a decrease in the equity positions of banks because other assets are going sour by the moment.

9:54pm EST:
ES has now entered the highest probability long area since the plunge to 787 on Wednesday, keep in mind that there is still a short ambush from 820 working with target of 804.5, which happens to run right into the trendline of the recent wedge and still wouldn’t violate the long ambush zone.

7:56pm EST:
On 24 hr chart we are trading below support
Trading hours only chart should also be considered, since the high on Trading hours only chart is 1003 , as opposed to 1004.75 on 24hr chart, which puts that ambush at 832.75, which will probably be more watched level as opposed to 833.5 small difference, but something that should be considered

News:
General Motors Chief Rick Wagoner Said to Step Down

6:45 PM EST:
It surely doesn’t take a genius to figure out that after Euro dropped 500 pips from the highs of the rally that trend change might be in place, but here is an interesting nugget as to what happened last last few times Euro rallies got red heiken-ashi candle. Usually I like to see at least 2 in a row and at the close of the day , not 45 minutes after future open, but something to keep in mind:

Hey Traders, while doing hw on the charts for the week ahead, I found something very interesting. 23.6% retracement of the whole bear market was a great target for all the snapback rallies we have had to date, especially once the  bear market became very extended.  If history repeats itself, after seeing the recent low , we should see at least 883.5 on this snapback rally, see the charts below:

Exhibit 1:

Exhibit 2:


Exhibit 3:

Exhibit 4:

Exhibit 5:

And now the biggest question of all:
Exhibit 6?

Even though we have already rallied an incredible amount, as traders we have to be open to every possibility, especially such as history repeating itself.

Enjoy

Even though I personally do not trade long term, or even swing trade, it is always good to know where we are on the weekly time frame:

ES has put in a first green weekly trend candle, if we do resolve to the upside this week producing another green candle that would be rather bullish with potential to go as high as 940 to retest those highs. Also worth noting, ES is at overbought levels not seen since October 2007 on the weekly charts, even though not at extreme overbought levels just yet, so more upside is certainly a possibility.

Weekly Euro:

Euro weekly put in a what looks like could be a reversal / topping candle.